December 2009 Activity in the region’s manufacturing sector is expanding, according to firms polled for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all remained positive this month. Indicative of improvement, the overall level of employment and average work hours among reporting firms increased this month. Overall, expectations moderated somewhat in December, although the forecast for employment improved slightly. Indicators Suggest Growth The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 16.7 in November to 20.4 this month. The index has now remained positive for five consecutive months (see Chart). Other broad indicators suggest continued growth this month, but they fell somewhat from their November readings. The current new orders index, which has also remained positive for five consecutive months, decreased 8 points. The current shipments index fell less than 1 point. The current inventory index, although still negative, increased 10 points, to its highest reading in four months. Indicators for unfilled orders and delivery times edged higher and reached their highest readings since well before the recession began at the end of 2007. Labor market conditions have been stabilizing in recent months, and for the first time since late 2007, more firms reported an increase in employment than reported declines. The current employment index increased 7 points, to its highest reading since October 2007. The workweek index edged four points higher, to 6.4, its second consecutive positive reading. Cost Increases Reported But Prices of Manufactured Goods Are Near Steady Respondents reported higher costs for inputs this month. The prices paid index showed a notable increase of 19 points from last month. The percentage of firms reporting higher prices paid increased from 24 percent in November to 39 percent this month. On balance, however, firms reported near-steady prices for their own manufactured goods. The percentage of firms reporting lower prices (14 percent) was slightly greater than the percentage reporting higher prices (12 percent). Manufacturers’ Forecasts Moderate The future general activity index remained positive for the 12th consecutive month but decreased notably from 36.8 in November to 24.4, its lowest reading since March (see Chart). The future activity index has been trending downward since mid-year. Indexes for future new orders and shipments declined this month, falling 15 points and 7 points, respectively. For the eighth consecutive month, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (28 percent versus 14 percent) and the future employment index edged 6 points higher. In this month’s special questions, firms were asked about their expectations for changes in various categories of input and labor costs for the coming year (see Special Questions). Similar to responses in previous years, the largest annual increase is expected to be for health benefits (8.6 percent). In contrast, other labor costs (wages and non-health-care costs) are expected to rise only 1.3 and 1.6 percent, respectively. Regarding nonlabor costs, all expense categories are expected to increase in 2010: energy (7.9 percent), raw materials (2.9 percent), and intermediate goods (1.6 percent). Firms were also asked how the expected cost increases will compare to 2009 costs. In every category the percentage of firms indicating that their costs would be higher in 2010 was greater than the percentage reporting that their costs would be lower. Summary According to respondents to the December Business Outlook Survey, manufacturing activity is continuing to expand in the region. The survey’s indicators for general activity and employment improved this month, while indicators for new orders and shipments remained positive but moderated from the previous month. Firms still expect continued improvement over the next six months, although some future indicators suggest that, overall, optimism is on the wane. Special Questions (December 2009) 1. What percentage change in costs do you expect for the following categories in 2010? Energy Other Raw Intermediate Health Nonhealth Materials Goods Wages Benefits Benefits Increase 15% or more 17.4 1.4 0 0 17.4 1.4 Increase of 12.5-15% 10.1 1.4 0 0 10.1 0 Increase of 10-12.5% 8.7 2.9 0 0 7.2 0 Increase of 7.5-10% 8.7 5.8 0 1.4 21.7 0 Increase of 5-7.5% 8.7 8.7 8.7 0 14.5 4.3 Increase of 2.5-5% 17.4 20.3 17.4 18.8 8.9 21.7 Increase of < 2.5% 10.1 24.6 24.6 37.7 2.9 17.4 Stay at current levels 10.1 18.8 39.1 33.3 7.2 44.9 Decline of < 2.5% 0 5.8 1.4 0 0 0 Decline of 2.5-5% 1.4 2.9 0 1.4 1.4 1.4 Decline of 5-10% 0 0 0 0 1.4 0 Decline of 10% or more 0 0 0 0 0 0 Avg. Expected Change 7.9 2.9 1.6 1.3 8.6 1.6 Previous estimates for: 2009 Avg. -0.4 -3.0 -0.8 1.6 6.0 1.2 2008 Avg. 4.9 3.8 2.8 3.1 7.2 2.4 2007 Avg. 4.5 4.1 2.5 3.4 8.1 3.6 2006 Avg. 8.4 5.6 4.2 2.7 9.6 3.1 2. How do these expected costs compare with those in 2009? Higher 76.8 47.8 33.3 20.3 58.0 17.4 Same 13.0 29.0 50.7 56.5 23.2 68.1 Lower 2.9 14.5 7.2 14.5 10.1 5.8 * Percentages may not add to 100 percent because some reporters did not respond to the questions. Summary of Returns December 2009 December vs. November Six Months from now vs. December Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Busines 16.7 37.8 44.2 17.4 20.4 36.8 40.8 33.4 16.4 24.4 Conditions New Orders 14.8 30.5 45.1 24.0 6.5 35.7 40.6 32.2 20.0 20.6 Shipments 15.7 29.0 53.9 13.7 15.3 29.2 39.6 37.7 16.9 22.7 Unfilled Orders -5.4 14.8 68.1 14.8 0.0 2.1 23.7 50.5 19.6 4.2 Delivery Times -12.7 13.5 75.0 7.3 6.2 -7.9 8.5 65.2 17.2 -8.7 Inventories -17.3 12.6 64.2 20.0 -7.4 5.9 20.1 51.5 23.9 -3.8 Prices Paid 14.9 38.7 56.4 4.9 33.8 30.8 32.9 54.8 4.6 28.2 Prices Received -1.5 12.0 74.2 13.8 -1.8 1.2 27.0 56.7 9.4 17.6 Number of Emp. -0.5 14.3 77.3 8.0 6.3 8.3 27.5 50.7 13.7 13.8 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk 2.0 19.6 62.8 13.2 6.4 9.9 29.5 48.8 15.7 13.8 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 13.8 18.5 61.8 6.4 12.1 Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through December 15, 2009. November 2009 Activity in the region’s manufacturing sector is picking up, according to firms polled for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all improved this month. The overall level of employment was mostly steady this month, and the average work hours index was positive for the first time in more than two years. The region’s manufacturing executives expect increasing activity over the next six months, although expectations have moderated somewhat in the last several months. Low rates of current capacity utilization are suppressing capital spending plans. Indicators Suggest Activity Is Picking Up The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of 11.5 in October to 16.7 this month. The index has now remained positive for four consecutive months (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases in activity this month (29 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (12 percent). Other broad indicators suggest similar improvement this month. The current new orders index also remained positive for the fourth consecutive month and increased nine points. The current shipments index increased 12 points. The current inventory index, although still negative, increased 15 points, from -31.8 in October to -17.3 this month. Indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times remained negative. Labor market conditions have been stabilizing in recent months. The current employment index increased six points, from -6.8 to near zero. The percentage of firms reporting employment increases and decreases were essentially the same this month (14 percent). The workweek index edged seven points higher in November to its first positive reading in 23 months. Prices of Manufactured Goods Are Near Steady Recently reported declines in prices for manufactured goods were not as widespread this month. The prices received index increased three points, to -1.5, suggesting nearly steady prices for manufactured goods this month. Still, firms continue to report higher prices for purchased inputs. The prices paid index, which had been increasing for three consecutive months, fell back six points this month, to 14.9. Manufacturers Are Generally Optimistic The future general activity index remained positive for the 11th consecutive month but decreased from 39.8 in September to 36.8, its lowest reading since April (see Chart). Despite lower readings in recent months, indicators of future activity remain near levels not seen since 2004. Indexes for future new orders and shipments declined this month, falling five points and nine points, respectively. For the seventh consecutive month, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (27 percent versus 19 percent). In this month’s special questions, firms were asked about their current capacity utilization and capital spending plans (see Special Questions). Over 58 percent of the firms indicated that their current capacity utilization rate was less than 70 percent; only 8 percent of firms reported utilization rates lower than 70 percent before the beginning of the recession. The percentage of firms that indicated capital spending on plant and equipment would be lower next year (41 percent) substantially exceeded the percentage that indicated capital spending would be higher (16 percent). Firms indicated, on average, that capacity utilization would need to increase to nearly 84 percent before they would be inclined to increase spending to increase capacity at their plant. Summary According to respondents to the November Business Outlook Survey, manufacturing conditions are improving. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were higher this month. Employment was nearly flat this month, and more firms reported an increase in work hours. Firms still expect continued improvement over the next six months, although future indicators suggest that optimism has waned somewhat in recent months. Capital spending plans are being held back by low plant utilization rates. Special Questions (November 2009) 1. Which of the following best characterizes your plant’s current capacity utilization and the rate at the peak of business before the recession? Capacity Utilization Current Before Recession Rate (% of reporters) (% of reporters) Less than 60% 33.7 1.2 60%-70% 24.4 7.0 70%-80% 18.6 20.9 80%-90% 10.5 37.2 90%-100% 4.7 25.6 NR 8.1 8.1 2. Is your firm increasing or decreasing spending on plant and equipment over the next year? Increasing 16.3 Decreasing 40.7 Spending will be about the same as in 2009 25.6 N.R. 17.4 3. At what capacity utilization rate would you be inclined to increase your spending to increase capacity at your current site? Mean 83.7% Standard Deviation 14.3% Summary of Returns November 2009 November vs. October Six Months from now vs. November Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Busines 11.5 28.5 56.4 11.8 16.7 39.8 48.9 30.7 12.2 36.8 Conditions New Orders 6.2 30.5 50.6 15.7 14.8 40.3 48.6 34.9 12.9 35.7 Shipments 3.3 30.3 46.8 14.6 15.7 37.8 44.7 35.0 15.5 29.2 Unfilled Orders -1.3 15.1 57.2 20.6 -5.4 12.3 20.0 55.2 17.9 2.1 Delivery Times -9.3 2.1 76.6 14.8 -12.7 3.2 7.0 69.5 14.9 -7.9 Inventories -31.8 11.0 59.1 28.3 -17.3 4.1 25.1 45.6 19.1 5.9 Prices Paid 21.3 24.2 60.1 9.3 14.9 32.8 34.1 55.6 3.3 30.8 Prices Received -4.3 18.0 58.3 19.5 -1.5 11.0 18.8 56.8 17.6 1.2 Number of Emp. -6.8 13.9 68.9 14.3 -0.5 7.4 27.1 48.3 18.9 8.3 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -4.7 15.0 64.0 13.1 2.0 21.3 23.0 59.3 13.1 9.9 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 8.5 25.4 51.8 11.6 13.8 Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through November 16, 2009. October 2009 The region’s manufacturing sector is continuing to show signs of recovery, according to firms polled for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered positive readings for the third consecutive month, but they suggest only marginal growth. Indexes for employment and work hours remained negative, but trends suggest that employment losses have moderated in recent months. A growing percentage of firms have indicated higher input prices in recent months, but price increases for their own manufactured goods are not prevalent. The region’s manufacturing executives expect business activity to increase over the next six months; however, expectations have moderated somewhat in the last several months. Indicators Still Suggest Only Modest Growth The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell from a reading of 14.1 in September to 11.5 this month. The index has now remained positive for three consecutive months following a nearly continuous string of negative readings since the beginning of the recession in December 2007 (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases in activity this month (28 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (17 percent). Other broad indicators suggest some growth this month. The current new orders index also remained positive for the third consecutive month and increased three points. The current shipments index decreased five points but remained slightly positive. Firms reported declines in inventories this month: The current inventory index declined 14 points, from -18.1 in September to -31.8 this month. Indicators for unfilled orders and delivery times remained negative, suggesting continued weakness. Labor market conditions remain weak, although there are signs that widespread declines have moderated considerably. The current employment index, although still negative, increased eight points, from -14.3 to -6.8, its highest reading since September 2008. Twenty-three percent of firms reported employment declines, while 16 percent reported employment increases. The workweek index remained negative, edging one point lower, to -4.7. Cost Pressures on the Rise Although more firms have reported higher prices for purchased inputs over the past few months, firms continued reporting overall declines in prices of their manufactured goods this month. The prices paid index has been indicating higher input prices for the past three months, increasing 25 points since July. The same manufacturers, however, reported declines in prices for their own manufactured goods for the12th consecutive month. The prices received index, however, increased six points, to -4.3. Manufacturers Are Still Optimistic The future general activity index remained positive for the 10th consecutive month but decreased from 47. 8 in September to 39.8, its lowest reading since April (see Chart). Despite losing ground in recent months, indicators of future activity remain near levels not seen since 2004. Indexes for future new orders and shipments declined this month, falling 10 points and 17 points, respectively. For the sixth consecutive month, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (26 percent versus 19 percent). But just as the other broad future indicators have fallen, the future employment index fell 13 points. In special questions this month firms were asked about their plans for capital spending over the next six to 12 months. Over 35 percent of the firms indicated that they had revised their planned spending downward due to changing financial conditions; 14 percent indicated they had revised plans upward. The percentage of firms expecting to decrease their capital spending over the next six to 12 months narrowly exceeded the percentage expecting to increase spending. The most frequently cited reason for not increasing capital spending was low expected sales growth , a low rate of current capital utilization, and limited need to replace information technology equipment. Summary According to respondents to the October Business Outlook Survey, manufacturing conditions are improving marginally. For the third consecutive month, the survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were positive, suggesting some positive growth. Employment continued to decline among the reporting firms, although the pace of decline was slower. Firms still expect conditions to improve over the next six months, but future indicators suggest that optimism has waned somewhat in recent months. __________________________________________________________________________ SPECIAL QUESTIONS (OCTOBER 2009) 1. Have recent changes in financial conditions prompted your firm to revise its planned spending on new plant and equipment over the next six to 12 months? Percentage Substantial downward revision 18.8 Small downward revision 16.5 No change 43.5 Small upward revision 11.8 Substantial upward revision 2.3 NR 7.1 2. After taking account of any recent revisions to spending plans, do you expect your firm’s spending on new plant and equipment over the next six to 12 months to increase, decrease, or be about unchanged relative to your actual spending over the past six to 12 months? Increase 17.6 No change 42.4 Decrease 24.7 NR 15.3 3. If your firm does not plan to increase its spending on new plant and equipment, what are the major factors behind your plan not to increase capital spending?* Expected growth of sales is low 57.1 Capacity utilization is currently low 52.9 Limited need to replace information technology equipment 52.9 Limited need to replace other capital goods 28.6 Cost or availability of external finance has deteriorated 15.7 Firm’s cash flow or balance-sheet position has deteriorated 22.9 Other 4.3 *Percentages may not add to greater than 100 because firms were asked to indicate more than one factor if applicable ____________________________________________________________________________ Summary of Returns October 2009 October vs September Six Months from now vs. October Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Busines 14.1 28.4 54.7 16.9 11.5 47.8 48.6 42.6 8.7 39.8 Conditions New Orders 3.3 26.2 53.8 20.0 6.2 50.2 49.4 36.4 9.1 40.3 Shipments 8.2 21.1 58.5 17.7 3.3 54.9 50.7 34.4 12.9 37.8 Unfilled Orders -7.4 16.6 64.6 17.9 -1.3 24.5 21.9 62.4 9.7 12.3 Delivery Times -8.9 6.7 75.9 16.0 -9.3 9.4 13.2 71.0 9.9 3.2 Inventories -18.1 9.6 43.2 41.4 -31.8 -1.2 22.6 49.3 18.5 4.1 Prices Paid 14.9 24.3 70.8 3.0 21.3 40.7 35.5 51.9 2.7 32.8 Prices Received -10.6 7.6 77.6 11.9 -4.3 9.7 21.7 61.6 10.7 11.0 Number of Emp. -14.3 16.1 58.8 22.9 -6.8 20.5 25.9 49.3 18.5 7.4 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -3.9 14.8 63.4 19.5 -4.7 28.2 30.4 54.1 9.1 21.3 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 0.8 21.7 58.8 13.2 8.5 Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through October 13, 2009. September 2009 The region’s manufacturing sector is showing signs of growth, according to firms polled for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered positive readings for the second consecutive month. Indexes for employment, work hours, and the prices received for manufactured goods remained negative, suggesting continued weakness. The survey’s broad indicators of future activity continued to suggest that the region’s manufacturing executives expect business activity to increase over the next six months. Current Indicators Suggest Modest Growth The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 4.2 in August to 14.1 this month. This is the highest reading since June 2007 and the second consecutive positive reading (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases in activity (33 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (19 percent). Other broad indicators also suggested some growth this month. The current new orders index also remained positive for the second consecutive month, although it edged one point lower, to 3.3. The current shipments index increased eight points and has now increased 18 points over the last two months. Firms reported declines in inventories this month: The current inventory index declined 18 points, from 0.3 in August to -18.1. Indicators for unfilled orders and delivery times remained negative, suggesting continued weakness. Labor market conditions remain weak, despite signs of improvement in overall activity. The current employment index decreased slightly, from -12.9 to -14.3. Overall declines, however, are still not as widespread as in the first six months of this year. Twenty-four percent of firms reported declines in employment this month; only 10 percent reported employment increases. Although the workweek index remained negative, the index edged two points higher, to -3.9. Prices of Manufactured Goods Decline Although more firms have reported higher prices for purchased inputs over the past few months, firms reported overall declines in prices of their manufactured goods this month. The prices paid index increased five points and follows a rise of 14 points last month; the reading of 14.9 for the prices paid index is the highest level since last September. The same manufacturers, however, reported declines in prices for their own final goods. While 17 percent reported price decreases, 6 percent reported increases; nearly 76 percent of the firms reported steady prices this month. The prices received index decreased nine points, to -10.6. Manufacturers Are Still Optimistic Indicators of future activity remained near levels not seen since 2004 (see Chart). The future general activity index remained positive for the ninth consecutive month but decreased from 56.8 in August to 47.8. Indexes for future new orders and shipments edged higher this month. The future shipments index increased eight points, and the future new orders index increased four points. For the fifth consecutive month, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (34 percent versus 14 percent). Firms’ forecast for capital spending suggests that capital spending will be flat over the next six months: The future capital spending index, at 0.8, has remained very near zero for five months. In this month's special questions, manufacturers were asked about their total production growth for the third quarter (ending in September) and expectations for the fourth quarter (see Special Questions). Twice as many firms expect overall growth in production in the third quarter (48 percent) than expect a decline (24 percent). The average growth was about 1.3 percent for the responding firms. For the upcoming fourth quarter, more firms expect an acceleration in production growth (40 percent) than expect a deceleration (28 percent). However, few firms (only 1 percent) expect significant acceleration in growth in the fourth quarter; most firms characterized the expected acceleration in growth to be some (21percent) or slight (17 percent). Summary According to respondents to the September Business Outlook Survey, manufacturing conditions are improving. For the second consecutive month, the survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were positive, suggesting business growth. Employment continued to decline among the reporting firms, however. Firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, and they expect modest growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Special Questions (September 2009) 1. How do you expect your firm’s total production for the third quarter to compare with that of the second quarter?* % Subtotals Increase of more than 10% 11.1 Increase of 8-10% 6.2 Increase of 6-8% 6.2 Increase of 4-6% 4.9 Increase of 2-4% 7.4 Increase of less than 2% 12.3 48.1 Decreases of less than 2% 3.7 Decreases of 1-2% 2.5 Decreases of 2-4% 3.7 Decreases of 4-6% 2.5 Decreases of 6-10% 3.7 Decreases of more than 10% 7.4 23.5 No change 25.9 25.9 Average 1.3% 2. For the upcoming fourth quarter, what growth do you expect for production at your plant compared to the third quarter? Significant acceleration 1.2 Some acceleration 21.0 Slight acceleration 17.3 Slight deceleration 11.1 39.5 Some deceleration 12.3 Significant deceleration 4.9 28.3 No change 29.6 29.6 *Percentages may not add to 100 because a small percentage of firms did not respond to the special questions. Summary of Returns September 2009 September vs. August Six Months from now vs. September Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Busines 4.2 32.8 46.7 18.8 14.1 56.8 59.8 28.2 12.0 47.8 Conditions New Orders 4.2 27.0 48.8 23.7 3.3 46.5 58.9 27.5 8.8 50.2 Shipments 0.6 32.7 42.7 24.5 8.2 47.3 57.8 28.5 2.9 54.9 Unfilled Orders -9.3 14.3 63.3 21.7 -7.4 15.6 29.1 55.6 4.6 24.5 Delivery Times -7.0 5.3 78.8 14.2 -8.9 7.2 12.0 81.1 2.6 9.4 Inventories 0.3 13.4 54.7 31.5 -18.1 4.3 16.2 64.6 17.4 -1.2 Prices Paid 10.0 24.0 64.0 9.1 14.9 23.9 44.2 50.4 3.5 40.7 Prices Received -1.5 6.1 75.9 16.7 -10.6 13.6 22.9 61.5 13.2 9.7 Number of Emp. -12.9 9.8 63.8 24.1 -14.3 12.9 34.0 50.2 13.5 20.5 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -6.3 19.2 57.6 23.1 -3.9 24.0 35.0 57.7 6.9 28.2 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 0.0 21.2 51.3 20.4 0.8 Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through September 15, 2009. August 2009 The region’s manufacturing sector is showing some signs of stabilizing, according to firms polled for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered slightly positive readings this month. Although firms reported continued declines in employment and work hours this month, losses were not as widespread. Most of the survey’s broad indicators of future activity continued to suggest that the region’s manufacturing executives expect business activity to increase over the next six months. Current Indicators Suggest Improvement The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from -7.5 in July to 4.2 this month. This is the highest reading of the index since November 2007 (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increases in activity (27 percent) was slightly higher than the percentage reporting decreases (23 percent). Other broad indicators also suggested improvement. The current new orders index edged six points higher, from -2.2 to 4.2, also its highest reading since November 2007. The current shipments index increased 10 points, to a slightly positive reading. Labor market conditions remain weak. Firms continue to report declines in employment and work hours, but overall job losses were not as large this month. The current employment index increased from a weak reading of -25.3 to -12.9, its highest level in 11 months. Twenty-three percent of firms reported declines in employment this month, down from 30 percent in the previous month. Although the workweek index remained negative, the index increased nine points, to -6.3. Price Indexes Rise, But Output Prices Remain Steady For the first time in 10 months, more firms reported higher input prices than reported lower prices. The prices paid index rose 14 points, to a reading of 10.0, its first positive reading since last October. The same manufacturers, however, reported near-steady prices for their own final goods. Nearly 75 percent of the firms reported steady prices this month, while 13 percent reported price decreases and 12 percent reported increases. The prices received index increased 20 points, from -21.5 to -1.5, its highest reading since last October. Outlook Remains Optimistic Indicators of future activity improved slightly this month and continued to suggest that firms are expecting better conditions over the next six months. The future general activity index remained positive for the eighth consecutive month and increased from 51.9 in July to 56.8 (see Chart). Indexes for future new orders and shipments also edged slightly higher this month. For the fourth consecutive month, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (29 percent versus 16 percent). Firms’ forecast for future capital spending remains subdued: The future capital spending index is at zero this month, very near its readings of the previous four months. In special questions this month firms were asked about their current inventory expectations (see Special Questions). A little over 44 percent of firms indicated that their current inventories are about right for prevailing conditions. Nearly 34 percent expect declines over the next three months, while only 19 percent expect to increase inventories. About 15 percent of the firms indicated that their inventories had been reduced in the current downturn and that a rebuilding would occur in the third quarter. Only 4 percent indicated that a rebuilding would occur in the fourth quarter, but the largest percentage (27 percent) indicated that it would not occur until next year. Firms were also asked to characterize their likely inventory plans when demand picks up. The percentage of firms that think inventories will grow more slowly than in previous recoveries (34 percent) was higher than the percentage of firms (1 percent) that think inventories will grow faster. Over 23 percent think inventories will grow similar to previous recessions, while the largest percentage (40 percent) think inventories will remain at current levels. Summary According to respondents to the August Business Outlook Survey, manufacturing conditions improved slightly this month. For the first time since November 2007, all of the survey’s broad indicators were positive. Although employment continued to decline among the reporting firms, losses were less widespread this month. Future indicators suggest that firms continue to expect conditions to improve over the next six months. Special Questions (August 2009) 1) Choose the statement that best characterizes your current inventory situation. Inventories are: Aug. 2009 Feb. 2009 About right for current economic conditions. 44.2% 43.9% Expected to increase in the next 3 months. 18.6% 9.8% Expected to decrease in the next 3 months. 33.7% 43.9% 2) If your inventories have been reduced during the current business downturn, when do you expect to start rebuilding? Aug. 2009 The current third quarter 15.1% Fourth quarter 3.5% Next year 26.7% Reductions are expected to be permanent 18.6% N/A (Inventories have not been reduced) 25.6% 3) When the economy and demand begin to pick up, how would you characterize your firm’s likely inventory plans? Aug 2009 Inventories will grow similar to previous recovery periods. 23.3% Inventories will grow at a faster pace than in previous recovery periods. 1.2% Inventories will grow much slower than in previous recovery periods. 33.7% Inventory levels will remain at their current levels. 39.5% _______ Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of no responses for some questions. Summary of Returns August 2009 August vs. July Six Months from now vs. August Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Busines -7.5 26.7 50.7 22.5 4.2 51.9 61.0 30.9 4.2 56.8 Conditions New Orders -2.2 28.8 46.6 24.6 4.2 46.4 54.3 35.8 7.8 46.5 Shipments -9.5 26.0 48.6 25.4 0.6 45.4 55.9 35.0 8.6 47.3 Unfilled Orders -14.6 9.0 69.8 18.4 -9.3 12.9 24.7 66.3 9.0 15.6 Delivery Times -10.3 2.8 87.4 9.8 -7.0 5.3 13.6 78.4 6.5 7.2 Inventories -15.4 21.6 57.1 21.3 0.3 -2.4 23.2 56.0 18.9 4.3 Prices Paid -3.5 21.9 66.2 11.9 10.0 23.0 30.9 62.0 7.0 23.9 Prices Received -21.5 11.6 74.6 13.1 -1.5 11.2 21.2 71.3 7.6 13.6 Number of Emp. -25.3 10.5 62.9 23.4 -12.9 13.0 28.8 52.4 15.9 12.9 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -15.5 14.0 65.5 20.4 -6.3 18.1 32.6 53.0 8.6 24.0 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 2.4 17.8 56.1 17.9 0.0 Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey results reflect data received through August 18, 2009. July 2009 The region’s manufacturing sector is still experiencing weakness, according to firms polled for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered negative readings this month, although the indexes’ levels remained above their average readings for the year. Firms also report continued declines in employment and work hours this month. Most of the survey’s broad indicators of future activity declined slightly this month, but they continue to suggest that the region’s manufacturing executives expect a recovery in business over the next six months. Current Indicators Still Suggest Weakness The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from -2.2 in June to -7.5 this month. The index has been negative for 19 of the past 20 months, a span that corresponds to the current recession (see Chart). Firms reporting decreases in activity (31 percent) slightly outnumbered those reporting increases (23 percent). Other broad indicators suggest weakness, although recent declines in new orders may be stabilizing. The current new orders index edged three points higher, to -2.2, its highest reading in 10 months. However, the current shipments index declined 12 points. Indexes for delivery times and unfilled orders, which have remained negative for 15 consecutive months, suggest continued weakness. Labor market conditions remain weak, and firms continue to report employment losses and declines in work hours. The current employment index declined to -25.3, from an already weak reading of -21.8. Thirty percent of firms reported declines in employment this month; only 5 percent reported increases. Although the workweek index improved 11 points, 24 percent of the firms reported shorter hours and 9 percent reported longer hours. Price Index Suggests Near Steady Input Prices Firms reported less widespread declines in input prices again this month. The prices paid index, although still negative at -3.5, increased nearly 10 points; it has now risen 28 points over the last three months. Fifteen percent of firms reported cost decreases, and 11 percent reported increases. However, declines dominate prices for the manufacturers’ own final goods: Over 25 percent reported price declines, while only 4 percent reported increases. The prices received index declined five points, to -21.5. Six-Month Indicators Show Continued Improvement Broad indicators of future activity fell somewhat from their six-year highs last month, but they continue to suggest that firms are expecting improved conditions later this year. The future general activity index remained positive for the seventh consecutive month, but decreased from 60.1 in June to 51.9 this month. Last month’s reading was its highest since September 2003 (see Chart). Indexes for future new orders and shipments also retreated 12 points this month. For the third consecutive month the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (22 percent vs. 9 percent), and the future employment index was virtually unchanged. Firms’ forecast for future capital spending remains subdued: The share of firms expecting higher capital spending over the next six months (20 percent) is nearly the same as the percentage expecting decreases (17 percent). In special questions this month firms were asked about seasonal plant shutdowns or slowdowns during the summer (see Special Questions). Nearly 28 percent of firms indicated that it was normal to schedule such slowdowns, but nearly 49 percent said they would schedule them this year. Moreover, 62 percent of the firms scheduling shutdowns/slowdowns indicated that production decreases for July would be greater than usual. Nearly 49 percent indicated production declines for August would be greater than usual. Summary According to respondents to the July Business Outlook Survey, declines in the region’s manufacturing sector continued this month, although declines were not as large as those registered over most of the first half of the year. Indicative of continued weakness, however, firms are still reporting declines in employment and work hours. Although input prices may be stabilizing, over one-quarter of the firms reported declines in prices for their own manufactured goods. Future indicators suggest that firms expect improvement in conditions over the next six months, and for the third consecutive month, the number of firms expecting increases in employment over the next six months is larger than the number expecting declines. SPECIAL QUESTIONS (July 2009) 1) Do you normally schedule seasonal plant shutdowns or production slowdowns during the summer months? 2009 2006 Yes 27.6 30.2 No 71.1 64.0 NR 1.3 5.8 2) Will you schedule plant shutdowns or production slowdowns during the summer months this year? 2009 2006 Yes 48.7 33.7 No 50.0 59.3 NR 1.3 7.0 If yes, which of the following best characterizes your expected shutdowns/slowdowns for this month and next? 2009 2006 -------------- -------------- July August July August Production decreases greater than usual 62.2 48.6 41.4 17.2 Production decreases about the same as usual 27.0 21.6 44.8 41.4 Production decreases less than usual 5.4 2.7 13.8 6.9 Unsure/too early to predict 0.0 13.5 -- -- NR 5.4 13.5 0.0 34.5 Summary of Returns July 2009 July vs. June Six Months from now vs. July Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Busines -2.2 23.0 46.6 30.5 -7.5 60.1 59.3 32.3 7.4 51.9 Conditions New Orders -4.8 24.4 46.1 26.7 -2.2 58.6 51.3 41.4 4.9 46.4 Shipments 2.1 18.8 46.9 28.3 -9.5 57.4 53.0 34.9 7.6 45.4 Unfilled Orders -19.6 10.2 63.1 24.8 -14.6 25.6 19.1 74.3 6.1 12.9 Delivery Times -18.9 6.7 74.4 17.0 -10.3 5.5 11.9 79.8 6.5 5.3 Inventories -15.3 14.2 53.1 29.6 -15.4 -6.6 21.3 55.0 23.7 -2.4 Prices Paid -13.0 11.2 73.4 14.7 -3.5 19.9 30.9 59.5 7.9 23.0 Prices Received -16.6 3.9 68.7 25.4 -21.5 2.0 23.4 63.2 12.3 11.2 Number of Emp. -21.8 4.7 62.0 30.0 -25.3 12.8 21.9 66.1 8.9 13.0 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -26.6 8.9 61.3 24.4 -15.5 37.6 24.9 57.8 6.8 18.1 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 1.7 19.5 55.0 17.1 2.4 Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through July 14, 2009 June 2009 Declines in the region’s manufacturing sector were much less in evidence in June, according to results for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments showed notable improvement, suggesting recent declines have lessened dramatically. Indicative of ongoing weakness, however, firms reported sustained declines in employment and work hours this month. Most of the survey’s broad indicators of future activity showed continued improvement, suggesting that the region’s manufacturing executives are becoming more optimistic that a recovery in business will occur over the next six months. Current Indicators Reflect Near Steady Levels of Activity The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from -22.6 in May to -2.2 this month, its highest reading since September 2008 when the index was positive for one month (the index has been negative for 18 of the past 19 months, a span that corresponds to the current recession; see Chart). Firms are nearly evenly divided among those indicating increases (30 percent), decreases (32 percent), and no change (35 percent). The new orders and shipments indexes showed parallel increases this month, both rising 21 points, to -4.8 and 2.1, respectively. Although remaining negative, the survey’s current inventory index rose for the third consecutive month, increasing 13 points; the index is now 40 points above its record low reading in March. The survey’s indexes for delivery times and unfilled orders suggest continued weakness, however, with their negative readings showing little change from last month. Firms continue to report employment losses and declines in work hours. The current employment index remained at a relatively weak -21.8, although it increased five points from May. Still, 31 percent of firms reported declines in employment this month; only 10 percent reported increases. The average workweek index weakened this month: It fell three points, to -26.6 Price Indexes Suggest Less Widespread Declines Firms reported less widespread declines in the prices paid for inputs and the prices received for their own manufactured goods. Indexes for prices paid and prices received increased 10 points and 17 points, respectively, but still remain in negative territory. Eighteen percent of the firms reported paying lower prices for inputs (down from 24 percent last month). Only 5 percent reported paying higher prices this month. Over 22 percent of the firms reported receiving lower prices for their own manufactured goods; 6 percent reported receiving higher prices. Six-Month Indicators Show Continued Improvement Broad indicators of future activity showed significant improvement this month. The future general activity index remained positive for the sixth consecutive month and increased markedly from 47.5 in May to 60.1, its highest reading since September 2003 (see Chart). The index has now increased 71 points since its trough in December. The indexes for future new orders and shipments each improved 12 points this month. For the second consecutive month the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (21 percent versus 8 percent). The future employment index improved three points. The future workweek index increased 24 points. Firms’ forecast for future capital spending remains lackluster: The share of firms expecting higher capital spending over the next six months (21 percent) is nearly the same as the percentage expecting decreases (19 percent). In special questions this month, firms were asked about the probability that they would relocate some or all of their operations out of the tri-state region over the next five years (see Special Questions). The average probability of relocating was 20.2 percent, a decline from 26.9 two years ago. The average probability of relocating all operations was 5.4 percent, which was unchanged from two years ago. Firms were also asked to rank the factors that were influencing them to leave the region. The two most important factors influencing the decision to leave were the cost of labor; and taxes, subsidies, or regulations. Summary According to respondents to the June survey, declines in the region’s manufacturing sector diminished significantly this month. Indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments are suggesting steadier levels of activity, in contrast with the series of continuous large declines suggested in previous surveys. Indicative of overall weakness, however, firms still reported declines in employment and the prices of manufactured products. A growing number of firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, and for the second consecutive month, more firms expect to expand employment over the next six months. Special Questions (June 2009) 1) What is the probability that you will relocate some or all of your operations out of the tri-state region over the next five years? Average Probability (%) 2009 2007 2006 Probability of relocating some operations: 20.2 26.9 15.9 Probability of relocating all operations: 5.4 5.4 1.9 2) How important are the following factors in influencing your firm’s decision about leaving the tri-state region? Very or Most Relevant For Leaving (% of respondents)* 2009 2007 Cost of labor 73.4 84.4 Taxes/subsidies and/or regulations 67.9 66.0 Heavily invested in fixed capital 58.7 -- Availability of skilled workers 55.6 63.8 Cost of energy (electricity, oil, gas, etc. 54.0 52.2 Proximity to customers 41.3 38.3 Proximity to suppliers or raw materials 20.6 21.7 *Firms were asked to choose one of the following categories for each factor: “not relevant,” “somewhat relevant,” “very relevant,” or “most relevant.” Summary of Returns June 2009 June vs. May Six Months from now vs. June Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Busines -22.6 30.2 35.4 32.4 -2.2 47.5 65.5 27.2 5.5 60.1 Conditions New Orders -25.9 29.9 34.9 34.7 -4.8 46.5 62.0 29.4 3.4 58.6 Shipments -19.0 32.5 37.0 30.4 2.1 45.7 61.7 29.6 4.3 57.4 Unfilled Orders -18.4 9.5 61.3 29.2 -19.6 16.7 28.3 66.0 2.7 25.6 Delivery Times -18.1 4.2 69.7 23.1 -18.9 -5.7 12.1 76.0 6.6 5.5 Inventories -28.6 13.1 53.9 28.4 -15.3 -13.4 17.9 52.4 24.5 -6.6 Prices Paid -22.8 5.2 75.4 18.1 -13.0 19.1 26.9 59.2 7.0 19.9 Prices Received -33.8 5.7 70.2 22.3 -16.6 -1.6 15.9 64.7 13.8 2.0 Number of Emp. -26.8 9.6 57.2 31.4 -21.8 10.0 20.5 63.1 7.7 12.8 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -23.2 7.8 56.7 34.4 -26.6 13.6 37.6 55.5 0.0 37.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- -0.2 21.0 44.5 19.3 1.7 Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through June 16, 2009 May 2009 The region’s manufacturing sector continued to show weakness in May, according to firms polled for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Although the indexes for general activity, shipments, and employment improved, the index for new orders declined slightly. Firms reported decreases in input prices and prices for their own manufactured goods; however, the corresponding price indexes rebounded slightly from their record lows last month. Most of the survey’s broad indicators of future activity improved notably again this month, suggesting that the region’s manufacturing executives are more optimistic that a recovery will occur over the next six months. Most Current Indicators Less Negative This Month The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from -24.4 in April to -22.6 this month. Although an indication of continued overall decline, this reading is the index’s highest since last September; it has now edged higher for three consecutive months. Still, the index has been negative for 17 of the past 18 months, a span that corresponds to the current recession (see Chart). The new orders index remained negative this month and was the only broad indicator that did not show improvement (it declined two points). The survey’s shipments index, however, rose 17 points, increasing from its record low reading of -35.7 in April to -19.0. The survey’s current inventory index improved for the second consecutive month, increasing 12 points (the index is now 27 points above its record low reading in March). The survey’s delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were little changed from last month, suggesting continued weakness. Responses this month suggest that employment losses have moderated from April. The current employment index, although still negative, increased 18 points. Still, 35 percent of firms reported declines in employment this month; only 8 percent reported increases. The average workweek index also improved this month, increasing 18 points, to -23.2. Price Indexes Reflect Weakness Firms continued to report widespread declines in the prices paid for inputs and the prices received for their own manufactured goods, although corresponding price indexes rebounded somewhat from the record lows reached in April. Twenty-four percent of the firms reported paying lower prices for inputs, down from 36 percent last month. Only 1 percent reported paying higher prices this month. Over 36 percent of the firms reported receiving lower prices for their own manufactured goods; 3 percent reported receiving higher prices. The prices received index remained negative for the seventh consecutive month, although rebounding eight points from its record low of -41.4 in April. Six-Month Indicators Show Continued Improvement Broad indicators of future activity showed improvement again this month. The future general activity index remained positive for the fifth consecutive month and increased 11 points, from 36.2 in April to 47.5. The index has now increased 33 points in the past two months (see Chart). The indexes for future new orders and shipments also improved, increasing 13 and 14 points, respectively. For the first time in eight months, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months exceeded the percentage expecting declines (26 percent versus 16 percent). The future employment index jumped 22 points, to its highest reading since last September. The six-month capital expenditure index showed a modest four-point improvement, increasing for the second consecutive month; at -0.2 the index is 22 points higher than its record low in March. In special questions this month, firms were asked to characterize the underlying demand for their manufactured goods over the past two months (see Special Questions). The percentage of firms experiencing decreases in demand over that period (56 percent) was significantly greater than that of firms experiencing an increase in demand (24 percent). Among those firms experiencing current declines, however, 32 percent indicated that the rate of decline had moderated; 17 percent said declines had grown more severe. When asked when they expect an increase in demand for their products, the largest percentage of executives (45 percent) indicated that the increases are six months or more in the future. Twenty percent said increases will occur in four to five months; 14 percent said in two to three months. Summary According to respondents to the May survey, activity in the region’s manufacturing sector continued to decline this month. But evidence that declines are moderating was again present. While the broad indicators remained negative, most have improved from April. Responses to special questions offered corroboration that declines have been moderating for a significant proportion of firms. Most broad indicators for future business conditions improved markedly again this month, suggesting that an increasing number of the region’s manufacturing executives expect a recovery in business activity before the end of the year. Special Questions (May 2009) 1. Over the past two months, how would you characterize the underlying demand for your manufactured products?* Increasing significantly 2.4% Increasing modestly 22.0% No change 19.5% Decreasing modestly 31.7% Decreasing significantly 24.4% 2. If you are currently experiencing declines in demand, how would you characterize the declines? Declines have moderated. 31.8% Declines have continued at a steady pace. 15.3% Declines have been more severe. 16.6% NR 36.5% 3. When do you expect to see an increase in demand at your company?* One month 2.4% 2-3 months 14.1% 4-5 months 20.0% 6 months or more 44.7% NR 18.8% *Firms were asked to exclude normal seasonal variation. Summary of Returns May 2009 May vs. April | Six Months from now | vs. May | Prev. |Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. |Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index |Index Index | General Busines -24.4 13.7 49.3 36.2 -22.6 | 36.2 53.8 33.7 6.3 47.5 Conditions | | New Orders -24.3 14.1 43.5 40.0 -25.9 | 33.1 56.9 29.1 10.3 46.5 | Shipments -35.7 22.7 35.6 41.7 -19.0 | 32.0 53.3 31.0 7.6 45.7 | Unfilled Orders -19.5 14.3 52.0 32.7 -18.4 | 9.3 25.3 55.8 8.6 16.7 | Delivery Times -17.1 3.7 74.5 21.8 -18.1 | 6.8 5.8 76.5 11.5 -5.7 | Inventories -40.2 14.8 41.8 43.4 -28.6 | -31.2 21.0 41.3 34.4 -13.4 | Prices Paid -31.5 0.8 75.1 23.6 -22.8 | 5.9 30.0 58.7 10.9 19.1 | Prices Received -41.4 2.6 58.6 36.4 -33.8 | -3.7 18.8 57.0 20.4 -1.6 | Number of Emp. -44.9 7.7 57.8 34.5 -26.8 | -12.0 25.5 52.7 15.5 10.0 | Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -41.2 12.8 49.8 36.0 -23.2 | 7.9 28.1 53.6 14.5 13.6 | Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- | -4.0 24.3 45.9 24.5 -0.2 | Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through May 19, 2009 April 2009 The region’s manufacturing sector contracted less severely this month, according to firms polled for the April Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and employment remained negative but improved somewhat from March. Indicative of continued weakness, firms reported declines in input prices and prices for their own manufactured goods, and the corresponding price indexes reached record lows this month. Most of the survey’s broad indicators of future activity improved notably this month, suggesting that the region’s manufacturing executives expect declines to bottom out over the next six months. Some Indicators Suggest Declines May Be Diminishing The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from -35.0 in March to -24.4 this month. Although clearly indicating continued overall decline, this reading is the highest since January. The index has been negative for 16 of the past 17 months, a span that corresponds to the current recession (see Chart). The new orders index remained negative but showed similar improvement, increasing 16 points from a 29-year low in March. The survey’s shipments index decreased nine points, to -35.7, its lowest reading since the beginning of the survey in 1968. The survey’s index of current inventories increased 15 points from its record low reading of -55.6 last month. The survey’s indexes for delivery times and unfilled orders showed similar improvement this month but continued to reflect overall weakness. Employment losses remained widespread this month, with over 45 percent of the firms reporting declines. The current employment index, though still negative at -44.9, increased seven points from its record low reading last month. Over 44 percent of the firms also reported fewer work hours this month, and the average workweek index decreased 10 points. Price Indexes Reach Record Lows Firms reported declines in the prices paid for inputs and the prices received for their own manufactured goods; corresponding price indexes also reached record lows this month. Thirty-six percent of the firms reported paying lower prices for inputs; only 5 percent reported paying higher prices this month. The prices paid index decreased only slightly but reached a record low reading of -31.5. Over 41 percent of the firms reported receiving lower prices for their own manufactured goods; no firms reported receiving higher prices. The prices received index remained negative for the sixth consecutive month, reaching a record low of -41.4 after dropping nine points. Six-Month Indicators Show Marked Improvement Broad indicators of future activity showed significant improvement this month. The future general activity index remained positive for the fourth consecutive month and increased markedly from 14.5 in March to 36.2, its highest reading in 18 months (see Chart). The indexes for future new orders and shipments also improved — increasing 23 and 24 points, respectively. Despite the expected improvement in general activity, firms still indicated that employment will continue to fall over the next six months: The future employment index remained negative for the seventh consecutive month, although it increased five points. More than twice as many firms expect employment to decline over the next six months (23 percent) as expect it to rise (11 percent). The six-month capital expenditure index showed improvement, increasing from a record low reading of -21.8 in March to -4.0 this month. In special questions this month, firms were asked about the impact of credit conditions on their operations (see Special Questions). About 27 percent of the firms indicated they were having difficulty obtaining financing for long-term uses such as capital spending (7 percent cited substantial difficulty and 3 percent extreme difficulty). Moreover, 22 percent of the firms indicated difficulty obtaining credit for financing short-term uses such as paying workers or acquiring inventories (8 percent cited substantial difficulty and 3 percent extreme difficulty). Sixteen percent of the responding firms indicated that difficulty obtaining credit had reduced production or sales. Summary According to respondents to the April survey, activity in the region’s manufacturing sector continued to decline this month, but some indexes suggest that the declines are diminishing. However, indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all remained negative. Even more strongly indicative of continued weakness were the indexes for prices, which reached record lows. In contrast, most broad indicators for future business conditions improved this month, suggesting that the region’s manufacturing executives expect a recovery in business activity over the next six months. Special Questions (April 2009) No Some Substantial Extreme NR Difficulty Diff. Diff diff. ______________________________________________ percentage of respondents 1. To what extent is your business having difficulty obtaining financing for desired long-term uses such as capital expenditure? 58.4% 18.1% 6.5% 2.6% 14.4% 2. To what extent is your business having difficulty obtaining financing for desired short-term uses such as paying workers and acquiring inventories of material or supplies? 66.2% 11.7% 7.8% 2.6% 11.7% __________________________________________________ 3. Have problems obtaining credit either for capital expenditures or short-term needs reduced your firm’s production and/or sales? No: 61.0% Yes: 15.6% NR: 23.4% Summary of Returns April 2009 April vs. March | Six Months from now | vs. April | Prev. | Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. | Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index | Index Index | General Busines -35.0 15.9 42.7 40.3 -24.4 | 14.5 49.3 32.2 13.0 36.2 Conditions | | New Orders -40.7 19.8 35.0 44.1 -24.3 | 10.6 46.0 34.5 12.9 33.1 | Shipments -26.5 13.1 38.0 48.8 -35.7 | 7.9 45.3 38.2 13.3 32.0 | Unfilled Orders -22.8 12.0 52.7 31.4 -19.5 | -10.3 20.9 65.0 11.6 9.3 | Delivery Times -30.8 1.0 79.6 18.1 -17.1 | -7.6 14.9 74.0 8.1 6.8 | Inventories -55.6 7.6 44.6 47.8 -40.2 | -24.1 9.7 46.6 40.9 -31.2 | Prices Paid -31.3 4.6 57.8 36.1 -31.5 | -3.0 19.1 60.7 13.2 5.9 | Prices Received -32.6 0.0 58.6 41.4 -41.4 | -20.6 16.2 61.9 20.0 -3.7 | Number of Emp. -52.0 0.2 52.2 45.1 -44.9 | -16.5 11.4 62.0 23.4 -12.0 | Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -31.6 3.1 50.6 44.2 -41.2 | -1.5 25.8 51.4 17.9 7.9 | Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- | -21.8 23.5 44.3 27.5 -4.0 | Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through April 14, 2009 March 2009 The region’s manufacturing sector continued to contract this month, according to firms polled for the March Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained significantly negative. Employment losses were substantial again this month, with over half of the surveyed firms reporting declines. Firms continued to report declines in input prices and prices for their own manufactured goods. Most of the indicators of future activity suggest that the region’s manufacturing executives expect declines to bottom out over the next six months, but the firms’ employment forecasts suggest continued weakness. Indicators Reflect Further Contraction The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, edged higher, from -41.3 in February to -35.0 this month. Last month’s reading was the lowest since October 1990. The index has been negative for 15 of the past 16 months, a period that corresponds to the current recession (see Chart). Continued weakness was evident in all of the broad indicators this month. The survey’s current new orders index declined nearly 10 points, to -40.7, its lowest reading since July 1980. The shipments index increased six points, but this follows a record low in February. The survey’s current inventory index declined precipitously this month, from -24.3 to -55.6, its lowest reading in the history of the survey. The current employment index fell for the sixth consecutive month, declining six points, to -52.0, its lowest reading in the history of the survey. Fifty-two percent of firms reported a decrease in employment this month, and no firms reported increases. The average workweek index improved 13 points, but it remains at a low reading of -31.6. Declines in Prices Reported For the fifth consecutive month, firms reported declines in the prices paid for inputs and the prices received for their own manufactured goods. Thirty-seven percent of the firms reported paying lower prices for inputs; only 5 percent reported paying higher prices. The prices paid index decreased to a record low reading of -31.3 this month. Reflecting weak conditions, 38 percent of the firms reported receiving lower prices for their own manufactured goods; only 5 percent reported higher prices this month. The prices received index remained negative for the fifth consecutive month and edged five points lower, nearly matching its record low reading in December 2008. Six-Month Indicators Are Mixed The future general activity index remained positive for the third consecutive month but decreased slightly, from 15.9 in February to 14.5 this month (see Chart). The indexes for future new orders and shipments also decreased but by a larger amount – each fell 12 points. On balance, firms still expect decreases in employment over the next six months: The future employment index remained negative for the sixth consecutive month and was virtually unchanged from its reading last month. Thirty percent of the firms expect employment to decline over the next six months; only 13 percent expect employment to increase. The six-month index for capital expenditures also declined to a new record low this month, with 32 percent of the firms anticipating a reduction in capital spending over the next six months. In special questions this month, firms were asked about their expectations for production growth for the upcoming second quarter (see Special Questions). Nearly 45 percent of the firms expect declines in production in the second quarter, while 35 percent expect increases. Nearly 21 percent of the firms are expecting declines of more than 10 percent, and the average decline was 2.4 percent for the full sample. Forty-six percent of the firms said second-quarter production growth would be worse than the first quarter’s performance; 28 percent said the expected growth represented an improvement. Among those expecting declines in the second quarter, a majority (51 percent) indicated that a bottoming out of declines would occur in the third quarter, 29 percent expect it to occur in the fourth quarter, and 20 percent think it will happen in the first quarter of next year. Summary According to respondents to the March survey, activity in the region’s manufacturing sector continued to decline this month. Indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment suggested that declines continue to be broad-based. Over half of the firms reported declines in employment, and hours worked continued to fall. Indicators for industrial prices are at, or near, record lows for the survey. While the region’s manufacturing executives continue to expect some recovery over the next six months, most indicators of future activity fell this month. Firms expect employment losses to continue, and plans for capital spending continue to be reduced. Special Questions (March 2009) 1. What change, if any, do you anticipate in your firm’s production during the second quarter of 2009 compared to the first quarter? Decrease of more than 10% 20.5% Decrease of 5-10% 13.2% Decrease of 0-5% 10.8% Total decrease 44.5% No change 20.5% Increase of less than 2% 7.2% Increase of 2-4% 7.2% Increase of more than 4% 20.5% Total increase 34.9% Average: -2.4% Median: 0.0% 2. Would this represent a worsening or im-provement in growth from the first quarter? Significantly worse 21.0% Somewhat worse 24.7% subtotal 45.7% No change 25.9% Some improvement 8.6% Significant improvement 19.8% subtotal 28.4% 3. If production is expected to decline in the second quarter, when do you expect a bottom-ing out of the decreases? Third quarter 2009 51.4% Fourth quarter 2009 28.6% First quarter 2010 20.0% Second quarter 2010 0.0% Summary of Returns March 2009 March vs. February | Six Months from now | vs. March | Prev. |Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. |Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index |Index Index | General Busines -41.3 13.7 36.7 48.7 -35.0 | 15.9 40.0 25.4 25.5 14.5 Conditions | | New Orders -30.3 10.7 36.3 51.3 -40.7 | 22.2 37.3 31.0 26.7 10.6 | Shipments -32.4 13.5 46.5 40.0 -26.5 | 19.6 37.2 30.5 29.4 7.9 | Unfilled Orders -32.1 11.2 54.9 33.9 -22.8 | 7.3 15.5 54.5 25.8 -10.3 | Delivery Times -29.2 3.2 62.8 34.0 -30.8 | -6.0 9.5 71.9 17.1 -7.6 | Inventories -24.3 6.9 30.3 62.5 -55.6 | -15.5 15.6 41.3 39.7 -24.1 | Prices Paid -13.7 5.3 53.3 36.6 -31.3 | 2.9 20.7 50.4 23.7 -3.0 | Prices Received -27.8 5.2 55.9 37.8 -32.6 | -13.4 10.0 51.6 30.5 -20.6 | Number of Emp. -45.8 0.0 48.0 52.0 -52.0 | -16.9 13.2 51.3 29.7 -16.5 | Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -44.9 4.4 54.9 36.0 -31.6 | -4.0 21.9 49.0 23.4 -1.5 | Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- | -17.8 9.7 44.7 31.5 -21.8 | Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through March 16, 2009 February 2009 Conditions in the region's manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate this month, according to firms polled for the February Business Outlook Survey. All of the survey's broad indicators for current activity remained negative and fell from their already low levels in January. Employment losses were more substantial this month, and nearly half of the surveyed firms reported declines in both employment and average hours worked. Firms continued to report declines in input prices and prices for their own manufactured goods. Most of the survey's indicators of future activity improved, continuing to suggest that the region's manufacturing executives expect declines to bottom out over the next six months. Indicators Show Larger Declines The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, declined from a reading of -24.3 in January to -41.3 this month, its lowest reading since October 1990. The index has been negative for 14 of the past 15 months, a period that corresponds to the current recession (see Chart). Weakening conditions were evident in all of the broad indicators this month. The survey's new orders index declined eight points, and the survey's shipments index fell markedly (16 points) to its lowest reading since the survey began in 1968. Unfilled orders and delivery times remained significantly negative this month and edged slightly lower than in January, suggesting further weakening. In special questions this month, firms were asked about their current inventory situation. Nearly 44 percent of the firms indicated that their inventories were too high and were expected to decrease during the first quarter; 67 percent said their customers' inventory plans had also decreased. Firms were asked whether inventory changes in recent months were intended or unintended and what factors were most important in explaining the changes. Both actual sales and expected sales were categorized as "very important" (37 percent and 28 percent of firms, respectively). About 20 percent of the firms cited unexpected changes in sales as very important. Fewer firms cited expected changes in prices and changes in credit terms or availability as factors. The current employment index fell for the fifth consecutive month, dropping seven points, to -45.8, its lowest reading in the history of the survey. The percentage of firms reporting a decrease in employment (48 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting an increase (2 percent). The average workweek index deteriorated significantly, declining from -30.3 to -44.9. Forty-eight percent of the firms reduced work hours this month. Prices Continue to Decline For the fourth consecutive month, firms reported declines in the prices paid for inputs and the prices received for their own manufactured goods. Thirty-two percent of the firms reported paying lower prices for inputs; 18 percent reported paying higher prices. The prices paid index increased from a record low reading of -27.0 in January to -13.7 in February. Reflecting weak conditions, 31 percent of the firms reported lower prices for their own manufactured goods; only 4 percent reported higher prices this month. The prices received index remained negative for the fourth consecutive month and edged two points lower. Six-Month Indicators Improve Expectations for future conditions improved for the second consecutive month, suggesting that the current slump will bottom out in the next six months. The future general activity index increased from 7.4 in January to 15.9 this month, its second positive reading since September 2008 (see Chart). The indexes for future new orders and shipments also improved, increasing 11 points and 16 points, respectively. On balance, firms still expect decreases in employment over the next six months: The future employment index remained negative but increased 12 points from its low reading in January. The index has been negative for five consecutive months. Twenty-seven percent of the firms expect employment to decline further over the next six months; only 10 percent expect employment to increase. Summary According to respondents to the February survey, activity in the region's manufacturing sector continued to decline this month. Indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment suggested that declines were more broad-based than in January. Nearly half of the firms reported declines in both employment and hours worked in February. Firms also reported lower prices for inputs and for their own manufactured products this month. Most indicators for future business conditions improved from January, suggesting that the region's manufacturing executives expect some recovery in manufacturing over the next six months. However, firms expect employment losses to continue over the next six months. Special Questions 1. Choose the statement that best characterizes your current inventory situation: Too high and expected to decrease in first quarter 43.9% About right for current economic conditions 43.9% Too high and expected to increase in first quarter 6.1% 2. Over the past several months did your customers’ inventory plans: Decrease: 67.1% Increase: 3.7% No change: 18.3% 3. How important are the following factors in explaining recent changes in your phys-ical inventories? Very Important Not Important Important Intended due to actual sales 36.6 28.1 19.5 Intended because of expected sales 28.1 45.1 6.1 Unintended because of unexpected sales 19.5 32.9 24.4 Intended because of expected price changes 18.3 26.8 31.7 Intended because of changes in credit terms or availability. 6.1 18.3 48.8 Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of no responses for some questions. Summary of Returns February 2009 February vs. January | Six Months from now | vs. February | Prev. |Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. |Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index |Index Index | General Busines -24.3 10.2 38.3 51.5 -41.3 | 7.4 38.9 33.4 23.0 15.9 Conditions | | New Orders -22.3 20.1 28.2 50.4 -30.3 | 11.4 46.4 28.3 24.2 22.2 | Shipments -16.7 21.1 25.4 53.5 -32.4 | 3.9 43.8 29.4 24.2 19.6 | Unfilled Orders -31.1 9.0 49.9 41.1 -32.1 | -12.0 22.8 57.1 15.5 7.3 | Delivery Times -26.5 5.1 60.5 34.3 -29.2 | -14.7 7.8 74.2 13.8 -6.0 | Inventories -34.6 17.3 40.8 41.6 -24.3 | -23.6 15.0 48.9 30.5 -15.5 | Prices Paid -27.0 18.1 48.3 31.8 -13.7 | 3.7 17.9 61.7 14.9 2.9 | Prices Received -26.2 3.6 63.3 31.4 -27.8 | -9.7 12.0 57.6 25.4 -13.4 | Number of Emp. -39.0 1.8 49.3 47.6 -45.8 | -29.3 10.1 62.9 27.0 -16.9 | Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -30.3 3.4 41.9 48.3 -44.9 | -13.0 16.8 58.9 20.8 -4.0 | Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- | -16.4 12.2 51.7 30.0 -17.8 Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through February 17, 2009 January 2009 Conditions in the region’s manufacturing sector continued to be depressed this month, according to firms polled for the January Business Outlook Survey. All of the survey’s broad indicators for current activity remained negative, although some rose from the extremely low levels they had reached during the past few months. Employment losses, however, were reported to be more substantial. Firms continued to report declines in input prices and prices for their own manufactured goods. Most of the survey’s indicators of future activity improved, suggesting that the region’s manufacturing executives expect declines to bottom out over the next six months. Indicators Show Continued Declines The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, remained negative, although it improved from a revised reading of -36.1 in December to -24.3 this month.* The index has been negative for 13 of the past 14 months, corresponding to the current recession (see Chart). A similar pattern of continued weakness was evident in most other broad indicators. The survey’s new orders index remained very low, although it increased six points, to -22.3. Following an eight-year low reading in December, the survey’s shipments index remained negative but improved 13 points. Indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times remained significantly negative this month and edged slightly lower, suggesting continued weakness. The current employment index fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping 10 points, to its second lowest reading since the survey began in 1968. The percentage of firms reporting a decrease in employment (48 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting an increase (9 percent). The average workweek index remained very low and virtually unchanged at -30.3. Prices Continue to Decline Consistent with overall weakness, firms reported widespread downward price pressures again this month. Thirty-eight percent of the firms reported paying lower prices for inputs; only 11 percent reported paying higher prices. The prices paid index edged slightly lower, to a record low of -27.0. Thirty-four percent of the firms reported lower prices for their own manufactured goods; 7 percent reported higher prices. The prices received index increased seven points, rising to -26.2 from a record low in December. Six-Month Indicators Deteriorate Area manufacturers’ expectations for future conditions improved this month, following three months of decline. The future general activity index increased from -10.4 in December to 7.4 this month, its first positive reading since September 2008 (see Chart). The indexes for future new orders and shipments also returned to positive territory this month, increasing 16 points and five points, respectively. On balance, firms still expect decreases in employment over the next six months: The future employment index fell two points and has been negative for four consecutive months. The future workweek index increased eight points but remained negative for the fourth consecutive month. In this month’s special questions, manufacturers were asked about problems related to the recent disorder in credit markets (see Special Questions). Firms were also asked about the impact of credit constraints on their production and inventories and about their planned capital spending over the next six to 12 months. Nearly 12 percent of the firms polled indicated that they had experienced problems obtaining credit to finance ongoing activities since October (14 percent reported problems obtaining credit in October when the same questions were asked). However, a larger percentage of firms (38 percent) indicated that their customers were having such problems. Twenty percent of the firms said the credit-related problems had affected their own levels of production, and 7 percent reported that adverse conditions had influenced inventory levels. Firms were also asked if changes in financial conditions had prompted them to revise planned spending on plant or equipment over the next six to 12 months. Forty-one percent of the firms said they had revised their plans substantially downward (only 14 percent indicated substantial reductions in October). The number of firms that attributed the changes to low expected growth of sales and low capacity utilization was significantly higher than in October. Summary According to respondents to the January survey, manufacturing in the region experienced continuing declines this month. However, indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments suggested that the weakening was less severe than in December. Respondents reported continued declines in employment. Firms also reported lower prices for inputs and for their own manufactured products in January. Some indicators for future business conditions improved from their low readings over the past several months, suggesting that the region’s manufacturing executives expect some improvement in conditions during the first half of this year. However, firms expect employment losses to continue over the next six months. * The survey’s annual historical revisions, which incorporate new seasonal adjustment factors, were released on Thursday, January 8, 2009. Revisions for selected series from 2004 to 2008 are listed on pages 3-4 of this release. The full set of revised historical data is available at: http://philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-s urvey/historical-data/revisions/historical-revisions-2009.cfm. Released: January 15, 2009, 10:00 a.m. ET The February Business Outlook Survey will be released on Thursday, February 19, at 10 a.m. ET. Special Questions (January 2009) 1. Since October, have either your firm or your customers experienced problems obtaining credit to finance ongoing activities? January 2009 October 2008 Your firm Your customers Your firm Your customers Yes 11.8% 37.6% 13.8% 29.9% No 80.0% 22.4% 77.7% 30.9% No response 8.2% 40.0% 8.5% 39.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2. If yes, have the problems affected levels of your own production or inventories? January 2009 October 2008 Production 20.0% 18.1% Inventories 7.1% 6.4% Other 7.1% 3.2% 3. Have recent changes in financial conditions prompted your firm to revise its planned spending on new plant or equipment over the next six to 12 months?* January 2009 October 2008 Substantial downward revision 41.3% 14.5% Small downward revision 27.5% 27.8% No change 26.2% 46.4% Small upward revision 2.5% 4.1% Substantial upward revision 2.5% 3.1% * In January 2009, firms were also asked if some projects were delayed until later in the year (16.5%) and/or some projects postponed indefinitely (10.6%). 4. If your firm plans to decrease spending on new plant and equipment, what are the major factors behind your plan?** January 2009 October 2008 Expected growth of sales is low 54.1% 46.4% Capacity utilization is currently low 50.6% 33.0% Limited need to replace information technology 23.5% 16.5% Limited need to replace other capital goods 32.9% 25.8% Cost or availability of credit 7.1% 13.4% Firm’s cash flow or balance sheet position has not improved 30.6% 17.5% Outsourcing 1.2% 2.1% Other factors 8.2% 6.2% **These numbers may not add to 100% since respondents can check more than one option January 2009 Summary of Returns January vs. December Six Months from now vs. January Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Busines -36.1 18.6 34.8 42.9 -24.3 -10.4 34.6 31.0 27.2 7.4 Conditions New Orders -28.2 20.4 36.9 42.7 -22.3 -4.1 38.2 29.0 26.8 11.4 Shipments -29.7 21.3 37.5 37.9 -16.7 -1.0 35.7 28.0 31.9 3.9 Unfilled Orders -30.4 9.6 47.8 40.7 -31.1 -14.2 17.3 49.0 29.3 -12.0 Delivery Times -22.7 6.8 58.5 33.3 -26.5 -19.3 7.8 65.4 22.4 -14.7 Inventories -33.7 14.9 34.7 49.5 -34.6 -46.0 13.8 43.3 37.4 -23.6 Prices Paid -25.5 11.1 50.8 38.1 -27.0 -20.5 24.8 48.0 21.2 3.7 Prices Received -32.8 7.4 57.3 33.6 -26.2 -14.8 14.2 54.7 23.9 -9.7 Number of Emp. -28.6 8.9 42.3 47.8 -39.0 -27.6 7.4 51.9 36.7 -29.3 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk -31.6 3.9 56.2 34.2 -30.3 -21.4 12.3 53.9 25.3 -13.0 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- -18.4 14.3 41.2 30.7 -16.4 Notes: (1) Items may not add to 100 percent because of omission by respondents. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (4) Survey data reflect information received through January 13, 2009 Business Outlook Survey Selected Revised Diffusion Indexes (2004 - 2008) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Current General Activity 2004 36.5 28 29.5 31.7 29.2 30.7 34.7 24.9 19.4 26.7 19.1 25.5 2005 15.1 21 14.7 24.6 9.3 -1.2 8.1 11.2 6.8 4.6 10.2 12.4 2006 8.9 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.5 11.8 4 12.5 -0.7 1.8 4.6 -2.3 2007 12.5 1.4 1.5 2.6 3.7 17.3 6.3 -1.1 7.6 6.6 7.3 -5.4 2008 -12 -22.6 -15.9 -21.1 -16.3 -17.7 -16.7 -20.1 1.9 -38.7 -39.8 -36.1 Current New Orders 2004 33.1 27.3 26.1 25.5 22.8 28.6 35.3 18.9 26.3 20.2 22.1 20.6 2005 11.2 14 15.6 20.1 15.4 4.9 5.7 14 -1.6 20.2 14.9 6.9 2006 13.5 15.6 21.6 13.3 1 17.5 8 10.4 -3.6 11.6 1.3 -1.8 2007 4.3 3.2 2.6 4.8 5.2 18.5 9.3 3.6 11 3.9 6.7 9.7 2008 -12.5 -9.1 -8.2 -15.2 -6 -13 -12.8 -15.2 3.8 -30.6 -29.3 -28.2 Current Shipments 2004 29.9 19.5 25.8 28.2 26.5 32 39.5 30.3 26.2 26 20.4 21.9 2005 16.4 22.8 16.1 30.1 18.5 11.3 11.6 13.7 13.6 20.4 22.3 3 2006 18.6 24.5 24 19.5 13.1 20.7 10.6 19 -8.3 8.5 8.7 11.3 2007 23.3 3.3 7.7 6.5 8.1 7.9 20.5 10.3 11.4 -0.5 5.7 15.4 2008 -1.7 -10.3 -5.5 -6.2 0.5 -5.9 -6 -6.1 -1.3 -17.6 -19.3 -29.7 Current Unfilled Orders 2004 11.4 6.8 10.4 1.2 10.4 12.5 16.7 0.8 3.9 -1.7 -1.3 2.9 2005 -4.1 -2.7 0 -2.9 -3.6 -16.6 -10.2 2.7-10.4 -2.1 -7.4 0.8 2006 0.9 8.6 8.7 6.3 -2.7 -1.3 -8.7 -4.3 -6.8 -9 -4.3 -18.1 2007 -14.7 -12.2 -15.4 -13.2 -8.9 -1.4 1.4 -5.4 -5.2 -5.8 -8.3 -3.3 2008 -6.4 -11 -14.7 -16.3 -17.9 -11.4 -18 -14.8-14.1 -26.5 -28.1 -30.4 Current Delivery Times 2004 -0.5 4.5 16.3 0.3 9 7.4 15.1 -7.1 4.1 1.9 -4.8 1.2 2005 -2.5 4 2.6 4.6 0.1 -10.6 -1.8 -0.8 -1.6 -0.5 6.5 0.3 2006 7.5 6.9 4.7 -2.4 9.3 0.7 -2 0.4 -1.2 -5.1 2.3 -6 2007 -7.8 -6.3 -10.5 -11.3 -7.8 -2.8 -1.7 -3.2 -8.2 1.3 -11.9 -2.3 2008 -4.3 -5.8 -7.4 2.7 -12.8 -7.3 -10.8 -10.7 -7.9 -19.3 -20.7 -22.7 Current Inventories 2004 -2.9 3.7 -7.9 7.4 7.2 15.6 4.8 2.2 -0.2 1 -3.1 -5.4 2005 -4 -4.8 -1.3 1.1 0.7 0.6 -8.9 -7.5 -2.7 -2.5 1.3 2.2 2006 6.2 10.2 12.7 -7.8 -3 -1.3 0 7 2 10.5 2.2 -3.1 2007 -0.3 -0.7 -2.6 -0.5 -4.2 -5.4 0.4 -5.2 0.9 -15.7 -0.9 -9.1 2008 -11.4-11.5 -12.8 -22.8 -11.8 -10.1 -9.2 -9.9-23.9 -22.9 -20.3 -33.7 Current Prices Paid 2004 33.7 44.7 54 50.9 55.7 53.9 51.9 55.8 54.8 55.1 51.7 52.3 2005 62.3 47.2 35.7 51 29.1 25.3 27.8 26.6 50.9 23.6 53.1 49 2006 42.9 35.7 25.7 32.6 52.1 44.3 45.4 43.9 38.9 30.6 24.7 23.6 2007 14.5 20.7 26.2 27.5 28.6 22.7 22.2 11.9 24.6 38.4 38 40.8 2008 49.8 49.5 53.4 53.8 52.2 63.4 71.3 53 32.5 10.2 -26.6 -25.5 Current Prices Received 2004 9.9 17.6 21 13.6 28.4 31.1 34.6 33.5 32.7 32.7 29.6 19.6 2005 23.5 23.1 18.3 27 17.4 12.5 12.3 2.7 5.9 13.3 32.8 28.5 2006 18.9 17.1 16.6 15.2 12.6 16.3 16.5 16.6 19 17.8 8.9 9.9 2007 9.5 8.3 17.9 4.8 3.8 5.6 7.2 5.7 2 12.8 21 18 2008 30.5 23.5 22.7 29.7 30.7 29.3 27.9 25.1 15.1 5 -11.3 -32.8 Current Employment 2004 15.5 12.4 14.1 12.2 22.5 19 22.6 19.5 23.4 13.7 15.2 12.7 2005 16.7 12.1 13.1 15 8.2 8.3 2.8 5 2.8 14.3 19.2 8.5 2006 10.9 11.7 8.5 18.7 2.3 7.9 12.8 4.9 8.8 8.1 3.8 9.4 2007 7 1 4.7 4.4 12 5.1 5.7 17 5.5 9.8 6 3.3 2008 -0.1 2.3 -2.8 -9.5 0.3 -7.6 -7.1 -4.6 -3.2 -19.2 -23.8 -28.6 Current Average Workweek 2004 10.5 19.3 20.7 7.3 15.5 14 12.7 8.1 9.1 5.5 5.4 17.5 2005 7 7.6 9.1 14.1 0 4.1 6.4 0.9 0.3 -1.7 13.2 5.2 2006 7 8.2 8.7 5.8 10.9 8.1 -0.5 11.4 1.9 -1.2 3.3 -2.5 2007 1.3-11.7 -2.6 3 -4.2 -0.6 2.8 12.5 7.2 4.5 2.7 7.1 2008 -14.7 -2.9 -7.9 -11.9 -5.5 -8.8 -10.6 -12.9-10.5 -19.6 -21.5 -31.6