December 2017 Results from the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing conditions continued to improve. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive this month and increased from their readings last month. The firms also reported continued expansion of employment. Most indicators reflecting expectations for the next six months suggest continued optimism. Current Indicators Suggest Solid Growth The diffusion index for current general activity increased from a reading of 22.7 in November to 26.2 this month. Nearly 41 percent of the firms indicated increases in activity this month, up from 35 percent in November. Both the current new orders and shipments indexes also improved this month, increasing 8 points and 2 points, respectively. Although they moderated slightly, both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes remained positive, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders. Inventories were, on balance, nearly steady this month: The percentage of firms reporting lower inventories (19 percent) was slightly higher than the percentage reporting higher inventories (17 percent). The firms continued to report increases in employment. The current employment index fell 5 points but remained in positive territory, where it has been for 13 consecutive months. More than 29 percent of the responding firms reported increases in employment, while 11 percent of the firms reported decreases this month. The average workweek index declined 3 points after being in positive territory for 14 consecutive months. Cost Pressures Moderate The survey’s prices paid indicator suggested moderated cost pressures this month. Nearly 26 percent of the firms reported higher input prices this month, down from 39 percent in November. The current prices paid index fell 14 points this month. The prices received index, however, increased modestly from 8.6 to 11.3. Nearly 16 percent of the firms reported higher prices for their own manufactured goods this month, up slightly from 14 percent last month. The largest percentage of firms (78 percent) reported steady prices. Firms Expect Highest Cost Increases for Health Benefits In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked about their expectations for changes in various input and labor costs for the coming year. The responses indicate that the largest average annual increase is expected to be for health benefits (7.1 percent). Wages are expected to increase by an average of 2.7 percent, while nonhealth benefits are expected to rise 2.2 percent. The costs of raw materials and energy are expected to increase by an average of 3.3 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. The firms were also asked how the expected cost increases for 2018 will compare with this year’s cost changes. For all categories of expenses, the firms forecast, on balance, increases greater than in 2017. Firms Remain Optimistic The diffusion index for future general activity increased from 50.1 in November to 53.5 this month. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also improved, both increasing 3 points. The firms remained optimistic about expansion of employment over the next six months, although the future employment diffusion index fell 8 points. Forty-two percent of the firms expect increases in employment over the next six months; 9 percent expect decreases. The future capital spending index remained at a relatively high reading and edged 1 point higher, with 42 percent of the firms expecting capital spending increases over the next six months. Summary Responses to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all indicated expansion this month. The firms reported lessened input price pressures compared with last month, but slightly more firms reported price increases for their own manufactured goods. Most broad indicators reflecting firms’ expectations for the next six months improved modestly this month. Special Questions (December 2017) 1. What percentage change in costs do you expect for the following categories in 2018? Inter- Other Raw mediate Health Nonhealth Energy Materials Goods Wages Benefits Benefits (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Decline of more than 4% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 Decline of 3–4% 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Decline of 2–3% 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Decline of 1–2% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 No Change 19.4 8.2 11.5 4.7 7.9 28.8 Increase of 1–2% 25.8 21.3 21.3 10.9 1.6 10.2 Increase of 2–3% 27.4 21.3 36.1 45.3 3.2 35.6 Increase of 3–4% 9.7 24.6 18.0 37.5 6.3 13.6 Increase of 4–5% 6.5 11.5 11.5 1.6 14.3 5.1 Increase of 5–7.5% 0.0 9.8 0.0 0.0 20.6 6.8 Increase of 7.5–10% 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 25.4 0.0 Increase of 10–12.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 Increase of 12.5–15% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 Increase of 15–20% 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.0 Increase of more than 20% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 Median 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 6.3 2.5 Average 1.3 3.3 2.3 2.7 7.1 2.2 2. How do these expected cost changes compare with those in 2017? Inter- Other Raw mediate Health Nonhealth Energy Materials Goods Wages Benefits Benefits (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Higher 34.5 59.3 44.8 58.3 61.7 22.4 Same 58.6 40.7 53.4 40.0 28.3 77.6 Lower 6.9 0.0 1.7 1.7 10.0 0.0 Summary of Returns December 2017 December vs. November Six Months from Now vs. December Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 22.7 40.8 43.1 14.6 26.2 50.1 63.2 23.1 9.6 53.5 Conditions New Orders 21.4 41.5 45.2 11.7 29.8 56.4 67.0 19.6 7.2 59.8 Shipments 21.7 37.4 48.7 14.0 23.4 47.8 62.0 20.2 10.5 51.5 Unfilled Orders 17.0 20.4 68.9 9.7 10.8 22.1 23.7 54.1 12.8 10.9 Delivery Times 14.6 14.1 82.2 3.2 10.9 7.6 14.7 62.1 18.1 -3.4 Inventories -8.6 17.1 59.2 18.7 -1.6 28.1 40.8 48.1 8.1 32.7 Prices Paid 39.0 25.8 69.7 0.4 25.4 54.0 58.4 33.1 0.3 58.1 Prices Received 8.6 15.6 77.8 4.4 11.3 45.0 45.1 44.3 5.3 39.8 Number of Emp. 22.6 29.4 59.3 11.3 18.1 41.2 42.1 47.1 9.1 33.0 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 13.7 20.1 69.1 9.5 10.6 18.8 24.6 61.8 7.1 17.5 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 36.7 42.1 43.2 4.1 38.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through December 18, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: December 21, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. November 2017 Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in November, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity and shipments fell from their October readings but remained positive, while the survey’s index for new orders rose. The employment index fell but remained elevated. Almost all of the future indicators rose, and firms continue to expect growth in both activity and employment over the next six months. Current Activity Continues to Expand The diffusion index for current manufacturing activity in the region remained positive but decreased from a reading of 27.9 in October to 22.7 in November. The index has been positive for 16 consecutive months. Nearly 35 percent of the firms indicated increases in activity this month, down slightly from October. The shipments index fell 3 points to 21.7, while the new orders index rose 2 points to 21.4. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes remained positive, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders. In addition, the inventories index turned negative, falling 15 points to -8.6. Firms continued to report increases in employment, though at a slower pace relative to last month. While the current employment index has been positive for 12 consecutive months, it fell 8 points to 22.6 in November. Almost 28 percent of the responding firms reported increases in employment, while 5 percent of the firms reported decreases. The average workweek index also fell, dropping 6 points to 13.7. This index has been positive for 13 consecutive months. Price Pressures Show Little Change The survey’s prices paid index held relatively steady at 39.0, suggesting little change in input price pressures in November. Thirty-nine percent of the respondents reported higher input prices, while no firms reported decreases. Most firms (59 percent) reported no change in input prices. With respect to prices received for their own goods, 14 percent of the firms reported increases, and 6 percent reported decreases, up slightly from last month. The prices received index decreased 6 points this month, with 79 percent of the firms reporting no change in their own prices. Firms Expect Growth to Continue Almost all of the survey’s six-month indicators increased this month. The diffusion index for future general activity rose from 46.4 in October to 50.1 in November. Almost 57 percent of the manufacturers expect increases in activity over the next six months, while 6 percent expect declines. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also rose: The future new orders index increased 13 points, while the future shipments index rose 3 points. The future employment diffusion index rose 3 points to 41.2. Forty-three percent of the firms expect to increase employment over the next six months. Firms Expect Their Own Price Increases to Be Similar to Consumer Inflation In this month’s special questions, firms were asked to forecast the changes in the prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters. Regarding their own prices, the firms’ median forecast was for an increase of 2.0 percent, the same as when the question was last asked in August 2017. When asked about the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was also 2.0 percent, a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 2.5 percent in August. Firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.0 percent over the next four quarters, the same as the previous forecast. Firms’ forecast for the long-run (10-year average) inflation rate fell from 3.0 percent to 2.5 percent. Summary Responses to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. While the current activity and shipment indexes fell, they remained positive, and the new orders index rose. The employment indexes also continued to reflect growth in labor demand in the region’s manufacturing sector. Almost all of the indicators reflecting expectations for the next six months rose, suggesting that growth is expected to continue. Special Questions (November 2017) Over the next year (2017:Q4 to 2018:Q4), please list your expected annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous Forecast Forecast (August 2017) 1. For your firm: Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 2.0 2.0 Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.0 3.0 2. For your employees: Prices your employees will pay (for goods and services where they live). 2.0 2.4 3. For U.S. consumers: Prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services). 2.0 2.5 For the next 10 years (2017 through 2026), what is your expected annual average percent change with respect to the following: 4. For U.S. consumers: Prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services). 2.5 3.0 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (as percent changes). The forecasts are over the next year for questions 1 to 3 and an annual average for the next 10 years for question 4. Summary of Returns November 2017 November vs. October Six Months from Now vs. November Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Busines 27.9 34.7 53.3 12.0 22.7 46.4 56.5 32.8 6.4 50.1 Conditions New Orders 19.6 36.3 48.4 15.0 21.4 43.7 60.9 34.2 4.5 56.4 Shipments 24.4 39.1 43.5 17.4 21.7 45.3 53.6 39.8 5.8 47.8 Unfilled Orders 10.9 27.5 62.0 10.5 17.0 18.8 28.8 64.2 6.7 22.1 Delivery Times 21.6 24.1 66.4 9.5 14.6 2.4 21.3 63.4 13.6 7.6 Inventories 6.0 14.1 61.7 22.7 -8.6 12.4 41.2 40.8 13.1 28.1 Prices Paid 38.1 39.0 59.0 0.0 39.0 60.2 55.9 37.8 1.9 54.0 Prices Received 14.2 14.1 79.1 5.5 8.6 41.1 48.8 47.1 3.8 45.0 Number of Emp. 30.6 27.8 67.0 5.2 22.6 38.7 42.9 50.8 1.7 41.2 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk 19.4 20.7 70.7 7.0 13.7 18.6 24.0 70.8 5.2 18.8 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 37.7 42.2 45.5 5.5 36.7 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through November 13, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: November 16, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. October 2017 Manufacturing firms reported continued growth in regional manufacturing in October. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all remained positive this month. Both of the survey’s current labor market indicators showed notable improvement. The indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggest that firms remained optimistic about future growth. Current Indicators Suggest Continued Growth The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased 4 points to a reading of 27.9 and is now at its highest reading since May. More than 39 percent of the firms indicated increases in activity this month, while 11 percent reported decreases. Both the new orders and shipments indexes remained positive but fell this month, decreasing 10 points and 13 points, respectively. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes were positive for the 12th consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and an increase in unfilled orders. Firms reported, on balance, an increase in manufacturing employment and longer workweeks this month. Nearly 31 percent of the firms reported higher employment this month compared with 18 percent last month. No firms reported decreases in employment this month. The current employment index increased 24 points to a record high reading of 30.6. The average workweek index also increased 8 points, its highest reading in four months. Firms Reported Higher Input Prices Input price increases were in evidence this month. Slightly more than 40 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs this month, while only 2 percent reported price reductions. The prices paid index increased 4 points to its highest reading since March. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 15 percent of the firms reported higher prices, down from 25 percent in September. The prices received index decreased 9 points. Nearly 81 percent of the responding firms reported stable prices for their own products this month. Six-Month Indexes Remain Positive but Moderated Following three consecutive months of increase, the diffusion index for future general activity decreased from a high reading of 55.2 in September to 46.4 this month. The percentage of firms expecting an increase in activity (53 percent) remains significantly higher than the percentage expecting a decrease (7 percent). The indexes for future new orders and shipments also fell this month, by 13 points and 11 points, respectively. However, firms boosted their forecast for future employment this month. Nearly 43 percent of the firms expect increases in employment over the next six months, up from 36 percent last month; only 4 percent expect decreases. Firms Plan to Increase Capital Spending Next Year For this month’s special questions, manufacturers were asked about current capacity utilization rates compared with the same time last year. The average capacity utilization rate reported was nearly 77 percent, up 2 percentage points from what was estimated for one year earlier. For the U.S., the capacity utilization rate for the manufacturing sector, overall, is estimated to be almost 76 percent, nearly the same as one year ago. Firms were also asked about their plans for different categories of capital spending next year. For nearly all categories of investment spending, the share of firms expecting to increase spending was higher than the share of firms expecting to decrease spending. Only the energy-saving investment category had more firms expecting decreases. Slightly more than half of the firms indicated that they will increase investment in noncomputer equipment. Only 13 percent of the surveyed firms indicated that the planned capital spending plans assumed that there would be changes in the federal tax policy for 2018. Summary Responses to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The index for general activity increased, while the indexes for new orders and shipments moderated this month but remain at relatively high levels. The current employment index reached a record high this month. Firms also reported input price pressures this month, but the manufacturing firms’ own prices were less widespread. Firms’ overall forecast for the next six months remained generally positive. Special Questions (October 2017) 1. Which of the following best characterizes your plant’s current capacity utilization rate (current and last year)? Current Same Time Last Year (% of reporters) (% of reporters) Capacity Utilization Rate* Less than 60% 9.7 14.8 60%-70% 22.6 18.0 70%-80% 21.0 28.0 80%-90% 29.0 27.9 Greater than 90% 17.8 11.5 Average utilization rate 76.9 75.0 U.S. utilization rate** 75.5 75.4 2. Do you expect the following capital expenditure categories over the next year (2018) to be higher than, the same, or lower than in the current year? Higher Same Lower (% of (% of (% of Diffusion reporters) reporters) reporters) Index Noncomputer equipment 50.8 41.4 9.8 41.0 Software 25.9 67.2 6.9 19.0 Computer & related hardware 26.7 65.5 10.0 16.7 Structures 24.1 60.3 15.5 8.6 Other 10.0 44.8 3.3 6.7 Energy-saving investments 8.8 79.3 10.5 -1.8 3. Do these plans assume changes in the federal tax policy for 2018? (% of reporters) Yes 12.9 No 87.1 *Firms provided more specific rates of utilization than shown in the provided ranges. **Capacity Utilization: U.S. Manufacturing (NAICS) "Current" shows the rate for September 2017; "Same Time Last Year" shows the rate for October 2016. Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics Summary of Returns October 2017 October vs. September Six Months from Now vs. October Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 23.8 39.2 47.9 11.3 27.9 55.2 52.9 35.2 6.5 46.4 Conditions New Orders 29.5 36.9 43.6 17.3 19.6 56.9 52.0 38.3 8.3 43.7 Shipments 37.8 38.7 44.8 14.2 24.4 55.8 52.3 35.5 7.0 45.3 Unfilled Orders 17.0 26.8 57.2 15.9 10.9 12.2 29.6 59.0 10.8 18.8 Delivery Times 14.5 26.8 67.8 5.1 21.6 4.6 19.3 60.4 16.9 2.4 Inventories -1.4 22.2 61.7 16.1 6.0 18.9 28.3 53.9 15.9 12.4 Prices Paid 34.4 40.1 54.0 2.0 38.1 46.2 60.4 37.9 0.2 60.2 Prices Received 22.8 15.1 80.5 0.8 14.2 31.7 47.2 43.8 6.1 41.1 Number of Emp. 6.6 30.6 69.4 0.0 30.6 30.1 42.9 52.0 4.2 38.7 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 11.9 24.2 70.6 4.9 19.4 18.1 21.7 71.0 3.2 18.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 39.0 37.7 56.2 0.0 37.7 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through October 16, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: October 19, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. September 2017 Manufacturing firms reported an improvement in regional manufacturing conditions in September. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased this month and suggest a broadening of growth. Price pressures also picked up, according to the reporting firms. The survey’s future indicators suggest that manufacturers have generally grown more optimistic over the past three months. Most Current Indicators Improved This Month The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased 5 points to a reading of 23.8 and has remained positive for 14 consecutive months. Nearly 39 percent of the firms indicated increases in activity this month; 15 percent reported a decrease in activity. The new orders and shipments indexes also registered an improvement, increasing 9 points and 8 points, respectively. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes were positive for the 11th consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and an increase in unfilled orders. Firms reported, on balance, an increase in manufacturing employment this month. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment (18 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting a decrease (12 percent). The current employment index fell 4 points but has remained positive for 10 consecutive months. Survey Price Measures Rise This Month Price increases were more widespread this month. On the cost side, nearly 38 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs this month, up from 24 percent in August. The prices paid index increased 13 points to its highest reading since March. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, nearly 25 percent of the firms reported higher prices, up from 16 percent in August. The prices received index increased 9 points to its highest reading since January. Six-Month Indexes Show Continued Improvement The diffusion index for future general activity increased from 42.3 in August to 55.2 this month. The index has now increased for three consecutive months and is at its highest reading since March. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also showed improvement, increasing 8 points and 12 points, respectively. Firms remained optimistic about increases in employment over the next six months, although the future employment diffusion index fell 3 points. Thirty-six percent of the firms expect increases in employment; only 6 percent expect decreases. The future capital spending index remained at a relatively high reading, with nearly 44 percent of the firms expecting capital spending increases over the next six months. Most Firms Expect Increased Production for Rest of the Year In this month’s special questions, firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the third quarter ending this month along with expected growth for the fourth quarter. The share of firms reporting increases in third-quarter production (66 percent) was greater than the share reporting decreases (23 percent). Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, 55 percent of the firms expect acceleration in the rate of production, while 24 percent of the firms expect deceleration. For those firms expecting an increase in production, 31 percent of the firms expect to hire additional workers. The remaining firms indicated that they would increase the work hours of current workers (36 percent) or increase the productivity of current workers (25 percent) rather than increasing the number of workers. Summary Responses to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased this month, and employment remained positive. Firms also reported renewed price pressures this month. Firms forecast an acceleration of production growth for the upcoming fourth quarter, and firms’ overall forecast for the next six months showed further improvement. Special Questions (September 2017) 1. How will your firm’s total production for the third quarter compare with that of the second quarter?* Change attributable to (%): ______________________________________________ % of firms Seasonal Business factors conditions Other Increase 65.6 21.9 28.1 9.4 No change 10.9 Decrease 23.4 7.8 7.8 6.3 *Subtotals may not sum to totals because of incomplete answers. 2. For the upcoming fourth quarter, how much growth do you expect at your plant compared with the third quarter? % of firms Significant acceleration 11.9 Some acceleration 28.4 Slight acceleration 14.9 Subtotal 55.2 No change 20.9 Slight deceleration 7.5 Some deceleration 14.9 Significant deceleration 1.5 Subtotal 23.9 3. If you expect to increase production in the fourth quarter, how will this be accomplished? % of firms Hiring additional workers 30.6 Increasing work hours of current staff, without hiring additional workers 36.1 Increasing productivity of current staff, without hiring additional workers 25.0 Other 8.3 Summary of Returns September 2017 September vs. August Six Months from Now vs. September Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 18.9 38.9 43.6 15.1 23.8 42.3 63.5 21.0 8.3 55.2 Conditions New Orders 20.4 44.8 38.3 15.3 29.5 49.1 64.8 18.5 7.8 56.9 Shipments 29.4 52.0 33.2 14.2 37.8 44.1 65.0 16.3 9.2 55.8 Unfilled Orders 14.5 26.3 63.5 9.3 17.0 16.9 25.3 51.2 13.1 12.2 Delivery Times 10.5 23.3 67.1 8.8 14.5 6.8 19.8 58.6 15.1 4.6 Inventories -6.1 18.8 58.1 20.2 -1.4 26.2 35.1 38.9 16.2 18.9 Prices Paid 21.1 37.6 56.6 3.2 34.4 34.8 53.3 33.3 7.1 46.2 Prices Received 13.5 24.5 72.4 1.6 22.8 40.4 38.9 49.4 7.2 31.7 Number of Emp. 10.1 18.4 67.5 11.8 6.6 33.1 35.8 49.6 5.7 30.1 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 18.8 22.2 65.8 10.3 11.9 15.3 24.1 61.6 6.1 18.1 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 39.2 43.7 45.5 4.7 39.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through September 18, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: September 21, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. August 2017 Manufacturing conditions in the region continued to advance in August, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion index for general activity fell slightly but continued to reflect growth. There was a notable improvement in the new orders and shipments indexes, and overall employment expansion continued among the reporting firms. The survey’s indexes of future activity indicate that firms expect a continuation of growth in the region’s manufacturing sector over the next six months. Current Indicators All Remain Positive The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell slightly from 19.5 in July to 18.9 in August. The index has been positive for 13 consecutive months. Despite the fallback in the general activity index, the demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the survey’s current new orders index, showed notable improvement: The diffusion index increased from 2.1 to 20.4. Firms reported that shipments also continued to rise. The current shipments index increased 17 points to 29.4. The survey’s indicators for labor market conditions suggest modest growth in employment. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (15 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting decreases (5 percent). The employment index held near steady at 10.1. Firms also reported overall increases in average work hours in August, and the workweek index was positive for the 10th consecutive month. Price Indexes Suggest Modest Price Pressures The survey’s price indicators suggest moderate price pressures this month: Both the prices paid and prices received indexes remained positive and increased modestly from their July readings. With regard to prices paid for inputs, 24 percent of the respondents reported higher input prices, the same as last month. The current prices paid index edged 2 points higher after declining for the previous four months. The prices received index increased 5 points, with 16 percent of the firms reporting higher prices and 3 percent reporting lower prices. Firms Expect Their Own Price Increases to Be Slightly Below the Rate of Inflation In this month’s special questions, firms were asked to forecast the changes in the prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters. Regarding their own prices, the firms’ median forecast was for an increase of 2.0 percent, the same as when the question was last asked in May 2017. When asked about the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was 2.5 percent, an increase from the previous forecast of 2.2 percent in May. Firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.0 percent over the next four quarters, the same as the previous forecast in May. Firms’ forecast for the long-run (10-year average) inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.0 percent this quarter. Six-Month Forecasts Show Improvement The diffusion index for future general activity increased from a reading of 36.9 in July to 42.3 this month, its highest reading in four months. Over the next six months, nearly 49 percent of the firms expect increases in activity, and only 7 percent expect decreases. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also increased from their July readings, by 10 points and 18 points, respectively. The future employment index increased 6 points, marking its highest reading in four months. Over 38 percent of the manufacturers said they expect to expand employment over the next six months, while only 5 percent expect to reduce employment. Although the future capital spending index fell 3 points, firms remain optimistic in their investment plans, with 42 percent of the firms expecting to increase capital spending over the next six months. Summary Responses to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector, as all of the broad current indicators remained positive. Firms reported a notable expansion in new orders and shipments this month. The survey’s future indexes indicate that respondents continue to expect growth over the next six months. Special Questions (August 2017) Over the next year (2017:Q3 to 2018:Q3), please list your expected annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous Forecast* Forecast (May 2017) 1. For your firm: Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 2.0 2.0 Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.0 3.0 2. For your employees: Prices your employees will pay (for goods and services where they live). 2.4 2.0 3. For U.S. consumers: Prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services). 2.5 2.2 For the next 10 years (2017 through 2026), what is your expected annual average percent change with respect to the following: 4. For U.S. consumers: Prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services). 3.0 3.0 * The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (as percent changes). The forecasts are over the next year for questions 1 to 3 and an annual average for the next 10 years for question 4. Summary of Returns August 2017 August vs. July Six Months from Now vs. August Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 19.5 35.3 42.2 16.4 18.9 36.9 48.8 32.6 6.5 42.3 Conditions New Orders 2.1 39.2 40.6 18.7 20.4 39.4 52.2 32.4 3.1 49.1 Shipments 12.2 44.0 38.2 14.7 29.4 25.9 54.4 27.6 10.3 44.1 Unfilled Orders 7.2 22.3 63.8 7.9 14.5 11.4 23.8 57.7 6.8 16.9 Delivery Times 7.4 13.9 77.9 3.4 10.5 1.6 15.5 64.9 8.7 6.8 Inventories 0.7 17.6 56.2 23.7 -6.1 25.8 39.2 38.6 13.0 26.2 Prices Paid 19.1 23.6 71.5 2.6 21.1 46.6 41.2 40.0 6.4 34.8 Prices Received 9.0 16.3 79.4 2.8 13.5 29.7 43.0 45.5 2.6 40.4 Number of Emp. 10.9 15.2 79.6 5.0 10.1 27.0 37.6 46.6 4.5 33.1 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 3.8 27.4 62.4 8.6 18.8 4.3 24.2 59.3 8.9 15.3 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 42.0 42.4 43.5 3.2 39.2 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through August 14, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: August 17, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. July 2017 Manufacturing activity in the region continues to grow but at a slower pace, according to results from the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, employment, and work hours remained positive but fell from their readings in June. Respondents also reported a moderation of price pressures this month. Firms remained generally optimistic about future growth. More than one-third of the manufacturers expect to add to their payrolls over the next six months. Current Indicators Suggest Positive but Weaker Growth The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 27.6 in June to 19.5 this month. The index has been positive for 12 consecutive months, but July’s reading is the lowest since November. Thirty-seven percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in July, down from 42 percent last month. The shipments index decreased 16 points, while the new orders index fell 24 points. Nearly 31 percent of the respondents reported a rise in new orders this month, down from 45 percent in June. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the ninth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders. Firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index fell 5 points. The index has been positive for eight consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment was 17 percent, while 6 percent reported a decrease. The average workweek index has been positive for nine consecutive months but decreased 17 points. Price Indexes Suggest Moderated Price Pressures The survey’s price indicators suggest moderated price pressures this month: Both the prices paid and prices received indexes remained positive but fell from their June readings. With regard to prices paid for inputs, 24 percent of the respondents reported higher input prices. The current prices paid index fell 5 points and has declined for four consecutive months. The prices received index fell 12 points. With 17 percent of the firms reporting higher prices, this index is at its lowest reading in seven months. Most Firms Expect Continued Growth The survey’s six-month indicators remained positive this month, with firms generally expecting growth to continue. The diffusion index for future general activity increased from 31.3 in June to 36.9 this month. Over half of the manufacturers expect increases in activity over the next six months, while 14 percent expect declines. The future new orders index increased 8 points, while the future shipments index fell 13 points. The future employment diffusion index decreased 3 points to 27.0. More than 34 percent of the firms expect to increase employment over the next six months. Optimism about future capital spending improved notably this month: The diffusion index for future capital spending increased 13 points, and 43 percent of the firms indicated they plan to increase such spending over the next six months. Seasonal Activity Continues to Be Important to Some Manufacturers In this month’s special questions, firms were asked to assess the importance of seasonal factors in production, seasonal changes in their production by month, and whether these seasonal factors have changed in importance over time. Most firms (63 percent) reported that seasonal factors were not significant, while 35 percent indicated that they were significant. Of the firms that reported significant seasonal patterns, the most common pattern was increased production during the spring and fall and decreased activity in midsummer and during the winter months. Fifty-eight percent of the firms with seasonal patterns reported that seasonal effects have not changed; 25 percent saw seasonal patterns as less important, and only 12 percent indicated they were more significant. Summary Responses to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector, but the pace of growth was slower. The survey’s future indexes indicate that respondents continue to expect growth over the next six months. Special Questions (July 2017) 1. How important are seasonal factors in your monthly production levels? Significant 35.4% Not significant 63.1% No response 1.5% 2. During what months does your firm experience seasonal increases or decreases? Month Increases Decreases Net January 21.5% 30.8% -9.2% February 18.5% 23.1% -4.6% March 32.3% 7.7% 24.6% April 26.2% 3.1% 23.1% May 24.6% 6.2% 18.5% June 24.6% 15.4% 9.2% July 15.4% 40.0% -24.6% August 20.0% 27.7% -7.7% September 27.7% 7.7% 20.0% October 36.9% 10.8% 26.2% November 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% December 15.4% 46.2% -30.8% 3. Have seasonal factors become more or less important for your business over time? More significant 11.9% Less significant 25.4% No difference 57.6% No response 5.1% Summary of Returns July 2017 July vs. June Six Months from Now vs. July Prev. Prev. Diff.Inc.No ch Dec. Diff. Diff.Inc.No ch Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 27.6 37.3 44.9 17.8 19.5 31.3 51.3 27.1 14.4 36.9 Conditions New Orders 25.9 30.5 41.1 28.4 2.1 31.9 53.2 29.1 13.8 39.4 Shipments 28.5 31.8 48.3 19.6 12.2 38.7 44.1 32.7 18.2 25.9 Unfilled Orders 14.0 19.9 63.7 12.6 7.2 3.4 25.2 56.2 13.8 11.4 Delivery Times 13.9 14.9 72.4 7.5 7.4 0.2 10.5 76.1 8.9 1.6 Inventories 5.8 22.1 56.5 21.4 0.7 20.4 38.6 42.6 12.8 25.8 Prices Paid 23.6 24.0 68.5 4.9 19.1 40.9 50.6 41.0 4.0 46.6 Prices Received 20.6 17.3 71.8 8.3 9.0 28.7 34.9 55.7 5.3 29.7 Number of Emp. 16.1 16.5 74.6 5.6 10.9 30.0 34.4 55.4 7.4 27.0 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 20.5 17.8 67.1 13.9 3.8 8.4 17.7 64.7 13.3 4.3 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 28.6 43.0 46.2 1.0 42.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through July 14, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: July 20, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. June 2017 Regional manufacturing continues to expand, according to results from the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion index for general activity fell from its reading in May but remained positive and continued to reflect growth. Although many of the future indicators also declined, firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. About one-third of the firms expect to add to their payrolls through the end of the year. Current Indicators Reflect Continued Growth The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 38.8 in May to 27.6 this month. The index has been positive for 11 consecutive months. Forty-two percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in June, down from 51 percent last month. The shipments index decreased 11 points, while the new orders index was little changed. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the eighth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders. Firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index fell 1 point. The index has remained positive for seven consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment was 21 percent, down slightly from 23 percent last month. Firms also reported an increase in work hours this month: The average workweek index remained positive for the eighth consecutive month but decreased 1 point. Price Indexes Are Mixed The survey’s price indicators suggest little change in input price pressures in June, but more firms reported price increases for their own products this month. With regard to prices paid for inputs, 28 percent of the respondents reported higher input prices compared with 31 percent last month. The current prices paid index fell 1 point but has declined for three consecutive months. The prices received index, however, increased 5 points, with the percentage of firms reporting higher prices at 24 percent, up from 21 percent last month. The index remains well above its average readings of last year. Firms Expect Growth, but Optimism Has Waned in Recent Months Most of the survey’s six-month indicators decreased further from the higher readings seen at the beginning of the year. The diffusion index for future general activity decreased from 34.8 in May to 31.3 this month, its third consecutive decline. Forty-two percent of the manufacturers expect increases in activity over the next six months, while 10 percent expect declines. The indexes for future new orders and shipments were mixed: The future new orders index decreased 15 points, while the future shipments index was virtually unchanged. The future employment diffusion index, at 30, increased 1 point. Thirty-four percent of the firms expect to increase employment over the next six months. Most Firms Expect Increased Production in the Near Term In this month’s special questions, firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the second quarter ending this month along with expected growth for the third quarter. The share of firms reporting increases in second- quarter production (60 percent) was greater than the share reporting decreases (17 percent). Looking ahead to the third quarter, 54 percent of the firms expect acceleration in the rate of production, while 18 percent of the firms expect deceleration. For those firms expecting an acceleration in production, 26 percent of the firms expect to hire additional workers. The remaining firms indicated that they would increase the work hours of current workers (36 percent) or increase productivity of current workers (36 percent) rather than increasing the number of workers. Summary Responses to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. All the broad indicators remained at high positive readings, suggesting continued expansion. The survey’s employment indexes continued to reflect overall employment growth and an increase in work hours. Many of the indicators reflecting firms’ expectations for the next six months continued to retreat from recent highs but, on balance, suggest that growth is expected to continue through the end of the year. Special Questions (June 2017) 1. How will your firm's total production for the second quarter compare with that of the first quarter?* Change attributable to (%): % of firms Seasonal Business Other factors conditions Increase 60.3 17.2 36.2 3.4 No change 22.4 Decrease 17.2 13.8 3.4 0.0 *Subtotals may not sum to totals because of incomplete answers. 2. For the upcoming third quarter, how much growth do you expect at your plant compared with the second quarter? % of firms Subtotals (%) Significant acceleration 1.8 Some acceleration 33.3 Slight acceleration 19.3 Subtotal 54.4 No change 28.1 Slight deceleration 5.3 Some deceleration 12.3 Significant deceleration 0.0 Subtotal 17.5 3. If you expect to increase production in the third quarter, how will this be accomplished? % of firms Hiring additional workers 25.8 Increasing work hours of current staff, without hiring additional workers 35.5 Increasing productivity of current staff, without hiring additional workers 35.5 Other 3.2 Summary of Returns June 2017 June vs. May Six Months from Now vs. June Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 38.8 42.4 41.7 14.9 27.6 34.8 41.7 37.8 10.4 31.3 Conditions New Orders 25.4 44.8 36.3 18.9 25.9 47.2 47.5 31.3 15.6 31.9 Shipments 39.1 40.3 44.7 11.8 28.5 38.5 49.6 34.4 10.9 38.7 Unfilled Orders 9.0 25.1 63.1 11.1 14.0 11.5 18.2 57.4 14.8 3.4 Delivery Times 6.4 19.7 71.2 5.8 13.9 7.8 13.2 67.5 13.0 0.2 Inventories 1.4 20.5 63.2 14.6 5.8 7.4 31.3 50.0 10.9 20.4 Prices Paid 24.2 27.6 66.4 4.0 23.6 42.7 47.7 38.5 6.8 40.9 Prices Received 15.3 24.4 67.6 3.8 20.6 22.9 34.3 53.9 5.6 28.7 Number of Emp. 17.3 20.7 71.4 4.7 16.1 29.2 33.7 55.7 3.7 30.0 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 21.7 25.0 66.2 4.5 20.5 0.3 21.5 57.8 13.1 8.4 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 32.6 36.1 50.3 7.5 28.6 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through June 12, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: June 15, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. May 2017 Results from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand this month. The diffusion indexes for general activity and shipments improved notably from their April readings. The indexes for new orders and employment, however, fell modestly from last month but remained at high readings. Although most of the survey’s future indicators fell this month, the readings suggest that most firms still expect growth to continue over the next six months. Current Indicators Reflect Continued Growth The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a reading of 22.0 in April to 38.8 this month. The index has been positive for 10 consecutive months. This month, the index recovered some of the declines of the previous two months, but it still remains slightly below its high reading of 43.3 in February. Fifty-one percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in May, while 13 percent reported decreases. The current new orders and shipments indexes remained at high readings. The shipments index increased 16 points, while the new orders index declined 2 points. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the seventh consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders. Firms reported an increase in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index fell 3 points. The index has remained positive for six consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment was 23 percent, lower than the 27 percent that reported increases in April. Firms also reported an increase in work hours this month: The average workweek index remained positive for the seventh consecutive month and increased 3 points. Price Pressures Moderate The survey’s diffusion indexes for prices remained positive but decreased from their readings in April. On the cost side, 31 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs, compared with 36 percent in April, and the prices paid index decreased 10 points to 24.2. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 21 percent of the firms reported higher prices, and 6 percent reported lower prices. The prices received index decreased 1 point. Firms Expect Growth, but Optimism Falls Most of the survey’s six-month indicators decreased further from the higher readings seen at the beginning of the year. The diffusion index for future general activity decreased from 45.4 in April to 34.8 this month, its second consecutive decline. Forty-five percent of the manufacturers expect increases in activity over the next six months, while 10 percent expect declines. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also fell, decreasing 9 points and 6 points, respectively. The future employment diffusion index, at 29.2, fell 8 points. Thirty-seven percent of the firms expect to increase employment over the next six months, down from 46 percent last month. Firms Expect Price Increases for Their Own Products to Match Inflation In this month’s special questions, firms were asked to forecast the changes in the prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters. The median forecast was for an increase in their own prices of 2.0 percent, the same as when the question was last asked in February of 2017. When asked about the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was 2.0 percent, a decrease from the previous forecast of 2.2 percent in February. Firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise at a pace of 3.0 percent over the next four quarters. Firms’ forecast for the long-run (10-year average) inflation rate fell from 3.0 percent to 2.5 percent this quarter. Summary Responses to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. All the broad indicators either improved or remained at high positive readings, suggesting continued expansion. The survey’s employment indexes continued to show a rise in overall employment and work hours. The indicators reflecting firms’ expectations for the next six months, however, continued to retreat from recent highs but on balance suggest that growth is still expected to continue. Special Questions (May 2017) Over the next year (2017:Q2 to 2018:Q2), please list your expected annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous Forecast* Forecast (February 2017) 1. For your firm: Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 2.0 2.0 Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.0 3.0 2. For your employees: Prices your employees will pay (for goods and services where they live). 2.0 2.0 3. For U.S. consumers: Prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services). 2.0 2.2 For the next 10 years (2017 through 2026), what is your expected annual average percent change with respect to the following: 4. For U.S. consumers: Prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services). 2.5 3.0 * The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (as percent changes). The forecasts are over the next year for questions 1 to 3 and an annual average for the next 10 years for question 4. Summary of Returns May 2017 May vs. April Six Months from Now vs. May Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 22.0 51.3 35.5 12.5 38.8 45.4 45.0 32.6 10.2 34.8 Conditions New Orders 27.4 40.9 42.2 15.5 25.4 55.9 54.7 33.3 7.5 47.2 Shipments 23.4 48.4 42.4 9.2 39.1 44.7 48.8 37.5 10.2 38.5 Unfilled Orders 6.6 23.9 59.2 14.9 9.0 22.2 23.0 58.7 11.5 11.5 Delivery Times 13.2 13.2 75.6 6.9 6.4 4.5 17.7 67.5 9.9 7.8 Inventories 17.8 16.0 69.2 14.6 1.4 12.1 30.1 44.0 22.7 7.4 Prices Paid 33.7 30.5 60.4 6.2 24.2 34.7 45.9 47.5 3.2 42.7 Prices Received 16.6 21.3 72.6 6.0 15.3 28.6 26.2 64.3 3.2 22.9 Number of Emp. 19.9 23.2 68.0 5.9 17.3 37.6 37.1 53.1 7.9 29.2 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 18.9 25.6 67.6 3.9 21.7 15.6 13.9 67.5 13.6 0.3 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 36.5 37.8 49.7 5.1 32.6 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through May 15, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: May 18, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. April 2017 Results from the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand, but at a slower pace than last month. The diffusion indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive but fell from their readings in March. The current employment index, however, improved slightly and continues to suggest expanding employment in the manufacturing sector. The survey’s future indicators continued to reflect general optimism but retreated from their high readings in the first three months of the year. Current Indicators Continue to Reflect Growth The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 32.8 in March to 22.0 this month. The index has been positive for nine consecutive months and remains at a relatively high reading but has moved down the past two months. Thirty-seven percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in April, while 15 percent reported decreases. The current new orders and shipments indexes remained at high readings but declined 11 points and 10 points, respectively. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the sixth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders. Firms reported an increase in manufacturing employment and work hours this month. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment (27 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting a decrease (8 percent). The current employment index improved 2 points, its fifth consecutive positive reading. Firms also reported an increase in work hours this month: The average workweek index was nearly unchanged at 18.9 and has registered a positive reading for six consecutive months. Price Pressures Moderate The survey’s diffusion indexes for prices remained positive but decreased from their readings in March. On the cost side, 36 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs, compared with 41 percent in March, and the prices paid index decreased 7 points to 33.7. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 30 percent of the firms reported higher prices, and 13 percent reported lower prices. The prices received index decreased 4 points. Firms Expect Growth but Optimism Lessens Most of the survey’s six-month indicators decreased from the higher readings seen since the beginning of the year. The diffusion index for future general activity decreased from 59.5 in March to 45.4 this month. Fifty-three percent of the manufacturers expect increases in activity over the next six months, while only 8 percent expect declines. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also fell, decreasing 5 points and 10 points, respectively. The future employment diffusion index, at 37.6, remained near its reading in March. Forty-six percent of the firms expect to increase employment over the next six months. Nearly 28 percent expect increases in work hours. Capital Spending Is Expected to Increase In special questions this month, firms were surveyed about their capital spending plans for 2017 compared with actual spending levels in 2016. Nearly 52 percent of the firms indicated that total capital spending would increase this year compared with 2016, while 17 percent indicated that spending would decrease. Expected high sales growth and the need to replace capital goods were the most cited reasons for the increase. Among the firms that indicated that capital spending would increase, 63 percent indicated that the majority of the spending would occur in the second half of the year. Among the firms that do not plan to increase capital spending, the most cited reasons were limited need to replace capital goods and low capacity utilization. Summary Responses to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. Most of the broad indicators remained at positive readings but fell from their March readings. The survey’s employment indexes, which continued to show improvement, were an exception. Indicators reflecting firms’ expectations for the next six months remained at high levels but moderated from recent highs. Special Questions (April 2017) 1. In 2017, do you expect the following capital expenditure categories to be lower than, the same, or higher than last year? Lower Same Higher Diffusion Diffusion (%) (%) (%) Index Index 2017 2016* Noncomputer equipment 15.4 41.5 43.1 27.7 12.5 Software 12.3 60.0 27.7 15.4 1.6 Computers and related hardware 12.3 63.1 24.6 12.3 -3.2 Structures 19.7 59.0 21.3 1.6 -4.8 Energy-saving investments 12.9 72.6 14.5 1.6 -4.9 Total Capital Spending 17.2 31.3 51.6 34.4 15.4 2. If your firm plans to increase total capital spending, what are the major factors behind this decision?** 2017 2016* (%) (%) Expected growth of sales is high 51.5 40.0 Need to replace other capital goods 42.4 36.7 Need to replace information technology equipment 33.3 23.3 Capacity utilization is currently high 30.3 23.3 Firm's cash flow or balance-sheet position has improved 21.2 20.0 Need to replace equipment that consumes too much energy 6.1 13.3 Cost or availability of external finance has improved 0.0 6.7 3. If your firm plans to increase total capital spending, when do you expect the majority of this spending to occur? (%) First half of 2017 36.7 Second half of 2017 63.3 4. If your firm does not plan to increase total capital spending, what are the major factors behind this decision?** 2017 2016* (%) (%) Limited need to replace other capital goods 54.5 5.3 Capacity utilization is currently low 54.5 31.6 Limited need to replace information technology equipment 36.4 21.1 Expected growth of sales is low 27.3 57.9 Firm's cash flow or balance-sheet position has deteriorated 27.3 10.5 Cost or availability of external finance has deteriorated 9.1 15.8 Outsourcing 9.1 – *Results for 2016 reflect answers from the March 2016 survey. **Percentages will not sum to 100 percent because more than one response could be selected. Summary of Returns April 2017 April vs. March Six Months from Now vs. April Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 32.8 37.4 46.9 15.4 22.0 59.5 53.4 28.9 8.0 45.4 Conditions New Orders 38.6 40.7 46.0 13.3 27.4 61.0 59.3 31.7 3.4 55.9 Shipments 32.9 38.5 46.3 15.1 23.4 54.8 54.9 29.5 10.2 44.7 Unfilled Orders 14.4 22.0 61.1 15.4 6.6 16.7 26.9 63.8 4.7 22.2 Delivery Times 4.5 19.0 68.7 5.8 13.2 7.7 13.0 70.9 8.4 4.5 Inventories 11.8 26.1 65.5 8.3 17.8 16.3 28.0 51.5 15.9 12.1 Prices Paid 40.7 36.3 60.3 2.6 33.7 55.7 39.8 48.5 5.1 34.7 Prices Received 20.6 29.8 55.1 13.2 16.6 40.2 35.8 52.7 7.2 28.6 Number of Emp. 17.5 27.4 65.1 7.5 19.9 38.5 45.9 40.0 8.3 37.6 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 18.5 23.4 70.0 4.5 18.9 21.9 27.9 55.8 12.3 15.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 34.5 41.4 48.1 4.9 36.5 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through April 18, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: April 20, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. March 2017 Results from the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand. The diffusion index for general activity fell from its high reading in February, but the survey’s other broad indicators for new orders, shipments, and employment all improved or were steady this month. Price pressures also picked up, according to reporting firms. The survey’s future indicators continued to improve and reflect a broadening base of optimism about future growth in manufacturing. Current Indicators Suggest Expansion Continues The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 43.3 in February to 32.8 this month. The index has been positive for eight consecutive months and remains at a relatively high reading. Forty-four percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in March, while 11 percent reported decreases. The current new orders and shipments indexes increased, rising 1 point and 4 points, respectively. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the fifth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and an increase in unfilled orders. Firms reported an increase in manufacturing employment and work hours this month. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment (25 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting a decrease (8 percent). The current employment index improved 6 points, its fourth consecutive positive reading. Firms also reported an increase in work hours this month: The average workweek index, which increased 5 points, has been positive for five consecutive months. Price Pressures Pick Up The survey’s diffusion indexes for prices remained positive and increased from their readings in February. On the cost side, 41 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs; no firms reported paying lower prices. The prices paid index moved 11 points higher to 40.7, its highest reading since May 2011. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 25 percent of the firms reported higher prices, and 4 percent reported lower prices. The prices received index increased 10 points. Most Future Indicators Reflect Continued Optimism The diffusion index for future general activity increased from 53.5 to 59.5 and is now at its highest reading since August 2014. Sixty-six percent of the manufacturers expect increases in activity over the next six months, while only 7 percent expect declines. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also moved up, increasing 10 points and 3 points, respectively. Firms also marked up their forecasts for employment increases. The future employment diffusion index increased 10 points to 38.5. One-half of the firms expect to increase employment over the next six months. Nearly 36 percent expect increases in work hours. Firms were also more optimistic about capital spending this month: The future capital spending diffusion index rose 12 points. Firms Perceive Skills Mismatch and Report Unfilled Positions In special questions this month, firms were asked about problems filling key positions with special labor skill requirements. Firms were asked generally about worker shortages, any perceived mismatch between skill requirements and labor supply, and how they were dealing with such skills shortages. More than 60 percent of the firms reported labor shortages, while a higher percentage (68 percent) indicated skills mismatch between requirements and available labor. These percentages were notably higher than the responses the last time the questions were asked in May 2014. More than 47 percent of the surveyed firms also reported that they had positions that have remained vacant for more than 90 days, an increase from the 33 percent that reported vacancies in 2014. Nearly 45 percent of the firms reported that the skills associated with most of their key job openings required some college/technical training; 35 percent indicated that the key positions required only high school diplomas; and only 12 percent indicated that a college degree was required. Increasing recruitment efforts and providing additional training to existing staff were the most frequently cited actions to deal with the cited skills shortages. Nearly 46 percent of the firms reported increasing wages to address the skills shortage problem. Summary Responses to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. All the broad indicators remained at positive readings with most indicators improving from their February readings. Increased price pressures were also in evidence this month. Indicators reflecting firms’ expectations for the next six months remained at high levels and showed continued improvement, suggesting expectations of continued growth in the manufacturing sector. Special Questions (March 2017) 1. Has your firm experienced any significant labor shortages or mismatch between labor skill requirements and the labor supply?* 2017 2014 Labor shortages 60.3 32.9 Skills mismatch 67.6 45.7 Job vacancies remaining more than three months 47.1 32.8 2. Rank the following categories of skills shortages in terms of their current economic importance to your firm. (Percentage of firms reporting the category in its top three rankings)* 2017 2014 Skills in the use of production machines or tools 91.2 76.2 Specific plant and systems operator skills 64.9 61.9 Supervisory, management, or administrative skills 49.1 47.6 Basic skills (reading, writing, math) 35.1 42.9 Computer skills 24.6 31.0 English language skills 8.8 31.0 Other 5.3 9.5 3. What skill requirements are associated with the majority of your key job openings? 2017 2014 College plus 12.3 7.6 Some college/technical school 44.6 53.0 High school only 35.4 33.3 Less than high school 7.7 6.1 4. What actions has your firm taken to address skills shortages? (Check as many actions as apply.)* 2017 2014 Increase recruitment efforts 77.9 65.7 Provide additional training to existing staff 54.4 55.7 Increase wages 45.6 34.3 Expand recruitment outside of the region 29.4 25.7 Partner with educational institution to align curriculum with talent needs 29.4 38.6 Increase recruitment incentives 20.6 17.1 Increase benefits 11.8 7.1 Decrease production 7.4 4.3 Implement phased retirement program to retain older workers 8.8 - Other 8.8 4.3 Note: All figures are shown as percentages. *Percentages will not add to 100 percent because more than one response could be selected. Summary of Returns March 2017 March vs. February Six Months from Now vs. March Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 43.3 44.0 40.3 11.2 32.8 53.5 66.0 23.4 6.6 59.5 Conditions New Orders 38.0 53.4 31.9 14.8 38.6 51.5 69.6 20.0 8.7 61.0 Shipments 28.6 47.0 36.9 14.1 32.9 51.7 63.2 26.1 8.4 54.8 Unfilled Orders 10.7 24.4 63.6 10.0 14.4 19.5 29.9 55.4 13.2 16.7 Delivery Times 4.1 11.2 82.1 6.7 4.5 11.5 17.5 70.9 9.8 7.7 Inventories -4.7 25.5 60.7 13.7 11.8 14.1 30.5 52.9 14.2 16.3 Prices Paid 29.9 40.7 59.3 0.0 40.7 51.1 57.9 37.7 2.2 55.7 Prices Received 10.6 25.0 70.3 4.4 20.6 23.5 46.7 44.3 6.5 40.2 Number of Emp. 11.1 25.1 66.2 7.6 17.5 28.5 50.0 36.6 11.5 38.5 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 13.6 24.0 69.0 5.5 18.5 19.9 35.6 45.9 13.7 21.9 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 22.1 39.3 49.7 4.8 34.5 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through March 13, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: March 16, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. February 2017 Results from the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that growth in regional manufacturing is broadening. The diffusion indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive this month and increased notably from their readings last month. The surveyed firms continued to report growth in employment and work hours. Although they moderated from last month, the future indexes for growth over the next six months continued to reflect a high degree of optimism. Current Indicators Suggest Broadening Expansion The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a reading of 23.6 in January to 43.3 this month and has remained positive for seven consecutive months. The share of firms reporting growth continues to increase: More than 48 percent of the firms reported increases in activity this month compared with 40 percent last month. The index for current new orders increased 12 points this month (with 44 percent of the firms reporting increases and just 6 percent reporting decreases). The shipments index increased 8 points. Other broad indicators also corroborate growth. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and an increase in unfilled orders. Firms continued to report overall increases in manufacturing employment this month. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment (15 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting a decrease (4 percent). However, the largest share of firms reported no change in employment (74 percent). The current employment index fell 2 points but has now registered its third consecutive positive reading. Firms reported an increase in work hours this month: The average workweek index increased 7 points and has now been positive for four consecutive months. Price Pressures Moderate The survey’s diffusion indexes for prices remained positive but moderated from their readings in January. On the cost side, 33 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs; only 3 percent reported paying lower prices. The prices paid index edged 3 points lower to 29.9. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 22 percent of the firms reported higher prices, down from 31 percent in January. The prices received index decreased 16 points but remains positive at 10.6. Firms Expect Price Increases for Their Own Products to Match Inflation In this month’s special questions, firms were asked to forecast the changes in the prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). The median forecast was for an increase in their own prices of 2.0 percent, the same as when the question was asked in the fourth quarter of 2016. When asked about the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was 2.2 percent, nearly the same as the 2.3 percent that was forecast last quarter. Firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise at a pace of 3.0 percent over the next four quarters. Six-Month Indexes Moderate from High Readings The diffusion index for future general activity decreased slightly from a reading of 56.6 in January to 53.5 this month. Over 58 percent of the firms expect increases in activity over the next six months, down from 67 percent in January. The indexes for future new orders and shipments, which remain at high levels, also showed declines this month, decreasing 3 points and 7 points, respectively. With respect to employment, 34 percent of the firms expect increases in payrolls over the next six months, down from 43 percent in January. The future employment diffusion index fell 10 points. Summary Responses to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest broader growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The indexes for general activity and new orders, in particular, showed notable improvement this month. The employment and average workweek indexes indicated continued expansion. Indicators reflecting firms’ expectations for the next six months remained at high levels, although they moderated from high readings in January. Special Questions (February 2017) Over the next year (2017:Q1 to 2018:Q1), please list your expected annual percent change with respect to the following: Percent Change over Next Year* ____________________________________ First Fourth Quarter 2017 Quarter 2016 Forecast Forecast 1. For your firm: Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 2.0 2.0 Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.0 3.0 2. For your employees: Prices your employees will pay (for goods and services where they live). 2.0 2.0 3. For U.S. consumers: Prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services). 2.2 2.3 For the next 10 years (2017 through 2026), what is your expected annual average percent change with respect to the following: 4. For U.S. consumers: Prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services). 3.0 2.7 * Numbers represent median forecasts. Summary of Returns February 2017 February vs. January Six Months from Now vs. February Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 23.6 48.2 42.0 4.8 43.3 56.6 58.1 26.0 4.6 53.5 Conditions New Orders 26.0 43.9 44.1 5.9 38.0 54.5 58.8 28.5 7.3 51.5 Shipments 20.5 37.7 52.5 9.1 28.6 59.1 58.3 28.6 6.6 51.7 Unfilled Orders 10.7 24.7 57.1 14.1 10.7 25.8 24.8 59.9 5.3 19.5 Delivery Times 5.4 8.8 82.9 4.8 4.1 14.2 18.0 69.5 6.6 11.5 Inventories 12.2 11.6 68.0 16.3 -4.7 10.9 28.5 45.0 14.5 14.1 Prices Paid 32.5 33.3 63.3 3.4 29.9 49.0 53.4 38.7 2.3 51.1 Prices Received 26.8 21.7 64.5 11.1 10.6 27.5 35.1 46.7 11.6 23.5 Number of Emp. 12.8 15.3 74.0 4.2 11.1 38.6 34.1 47.2 5.6 28.5 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 6.8 21.1 66.1 7.5 13.6 22.5 29.9 50.0 10.0 19.9 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 21.9 30.3 48.1 8.3 22.1 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through February 13, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: February 16, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET. January 2017 Economic conditions continued to improve in January, according to the firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity, new orders, and employment were all positive this month and increased from their readings last month. Manufacturers have generally grown more optimistic in their forecasts over the past two months. The future indexes for growth over the next six months, including employment, continued to improve this month. Most Current Indicators Show Broad Improvement The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a revised reading of 19.7 in December to 23.6 this month.* Forty percent of the firms reported increases in activity this month; 17 percent reported decreases. The general activity index has remained positive for six consecutive months, and the activity index reading was the highest since November 2014. The other broad indicators suggest sustaining growth. The index for current new orders increased 11 points this month, with 41 percent of the firms reporting increases. The shipments index remained at a high reading but fell 1 point. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the third consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and an increase in unfilled orders. Firms reported an increase in manufacturing employment this month. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment (19 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting a decrease (6 percent). The current employment index improved 9 points, registering its second consecutive positive reading. Firms also reported an increase in work hours this month: The average workweek index, which was essentially unchanged from December, has now been positive for three consecutive months. Firms Report Price Increases Price increases were more widespread this month. On the cost side, nearly 35 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices paid for inputs; only 2 percent reported paying lower prices. The prices paid index edged 4 points higher and has now increased nearly 24 points in the past three months. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 31 percent of the firms reported higher prices, up from 16 percent in December. The prices received index increased 19 points to its highest reading since July 2008. Six-Month Indexes Show Continued Improvement The diffusion index for future general activity increased from a revised reading of 48.7 in December to 56.6 this month. The index is now at its highest reading since August 2014. Nearly 67 percent of the firms expect increases in activity over the next six months. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also showed notable improvement this month, increasing 6 points and 12 points, respectively. In addition, firms marked up their forecasts for employment increases. Forty-three percent of the firms expect increases in employment over the next six months, up from 35 percent in December. The future employment diffusion index increased 14 points. Firms Expect to Increase Production to Meet Rising Demand In Special Questions, firms were asked to characterize current demand and production of their manufactured products over the past few months and to forecast their production increases for the first quarter of the year. Most firms (61 percent) reported an increase in underlying demand, but 56 percent characterized the increase as moderate. Sixty-three percent of the firms anticipate increasing production in the first quarter, and 25 percent expect to cut production. Firms were also asked about how employment would change to accommodate increased production. Only 14 percent of the firms polled indicated that the increase in production would be accomplished by hiring additional workers. Nearly 46 percent of the firms indicated that they would increase the work hours or the productivity of the current staff. Summary Responses to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all indicated expansion this month. Firms reported an increase in input price pressures over the past three months, and a notable share of firms reported their own prices were higher in January. Firms’ optimism about future manufacturing growth continued to improve this month. * The survey’s annual historical revisions, which incorporate new seasonal adjustment factors, were released on January 12, 2017. The full set of revised historical data is available at https://www.philadelphiafed.org/mbos-histrev2017. Special Questions (January 2017) 1. Over the past several months, how would you characterize the underlying demand for your manufactured products? Exclude any purely seasonal effects. Increase significantly 4.7% Increase modestly 56.3% Total Increase 61.0% No change 18.8% Decrease modestly 17.2% Decrease significantly 3.1% Total decrease 20.3% 2. How will your firm’s total production for the first quarter compare with that of the last quarter? Increase of more than 6% 15.6% Increase of 4-6% 14.1% Increase of 2-4% 20.3% Increase of less than 2% 12.5% Total increase 62.5% No change 12.5% Decrease of less than 2% 0.0% Decrease of 2-4% 7.8% Decrease of 4-6% 10.9% Decrease of more than 6% 6.3% Total decrease 25.0% Average expected growth for all firms: 1.6% Average expected growth for firms attributing growth to seasonal factors: 0.0%* Average expected growth for firms attributing growth to changes in conditions: 2.3%* 3. If you expect to increase production in the next quarter, this will be accomplished by: % of all firms Hiring additional workers 13.6 Increasing work hours of current staff, without hiring additional workers 18.2 Increasing productivity of current staff, without hiring additional workers 27.3 *The calculation is based on responses to a separate question about whether the expected change was due to seasonal factors, changes in business conditions, or other factors. Summary of Returns January 2017 January vs. December Six Months from Now vs. January Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 19.7 40.3 40.4 16.7 23.6 48.7 66.7 20.0 10.0 56.6 Conditions New Orders 14.9 41.4 39.8 15.3 26.0 48.8 63.9 20.1 9.4 54.5 Shipments 21.7 32.2 49.6 11.7 20.5 46.7 65.7 22.5 6.6 59.1 Unfilled Orders 3.6 24.8 56.5 14.1 10.7 16.3 31.7 56.1 6.0 25.8 Delivery Times 5.4 15.4 73.8 10.0 5.4 12.5 23.6 62.2 9.4 14.2 Inventories 1.3 24.4 57.3 12.2 12.2 18.9 28.8 47.0 17.9 10.9 Prices Paid 28.1 34.7 61.7 2.2 32.5 46.5 52.8 38.3 3.8 49.0 Prices Received 8.0 31.0 63.3 4.2 26.8 29.1 37.4 44.1 9.9 27.5 Number of Emp. 3.6 18.9 70.3 6.1 12.8 24.2 43.1 46.9 4.6 38.6 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 7.1 15.4 70.8 8.6 6.8 15.6 29.2 58.3 6.6 22.5 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 32.3 26.7 61.3 4.8 21.9 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through January 17, 2017. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: January 19, 2017, at 8:30 a.m. ET.