你好! It’s great to be back in Delaw是 without having to fight the traffic on I-95.

I’m honored to be addressing today’s luncheon — please go ahead and start your salad. 开始, 我想就目前的大阳城集团娱乐网站状况和美联储政策的走向简单说几句话, and then we can turn things over to a Q&A.

但在这之前, 我需要给你们一个标准的美联储免责声明:我今天所表达的观点只是我个人的观点，并不一定反映联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)或联邦储备系统(Federal Reserve System)其他人的观点.

在过去的18个月里，美国一直在努力保持大阳城集团娱乐网站增长.S. economy has moved in tandem with the waxing and waning of the COVID-19 pandemic. During periods when case rates and hospitalizations have declined, 随着美国消费者用他们的脚和他们的钱包投票，大阳城集团娱乐网站迅速增长. 当COVID-19风险减弱时, more Americans dine out at restaurants, 入住酒店, 让那些希望把行李塞进头顶行李舱的乘客懊恼的是，飞机被填满了. 在一个消费约占大阳城集团娱乐网站活动总量70%的国家，这些都是重要的支出类别. In the second quarter of this year, 例如, GDP grew at a very healthy annualized rate of around 6.5%，病例率暴跌.

And, of course, the opposite occurs during periods when the virus spikes. When the Delta variant of COVID-19 erupted, fomenting the country’s fourth major wave of the pandemic, 事情开始偏离正轨. 消费者信心大跌，酒店和休闲等大型行业充其量也只是停滞不前. 所以本季度, we can expect growth to come in at an annualized rate of between 3 and 4%, a sharp slowdown from earlier this year. 

但我们有理由乐观地认为，该国从这波新冠肺炎疫情中复苏的势头可能会比过去更持久. And that’s because more than half of the country is now fully vaccinated. 通过减少未来COVID-19浪潮的规模和严重程度，更多的疫苗接种将拯救生命，帮助恢复. Delta变种疫苗也集中了人们的注意力:它似乎不仅说服了更多的美国人自己接种疫苗, 但它也促使更多的公司和机构强制员工接种疫苗. 这是乐观的理由.

不过,阻力仍然. Supply chain constraints 是 a powerful one, 电脑芯片等关键零部件的短缺不仅阻碍了汽车和卡车的生产, but also comparatively smaller durable goods like home appliances. (是的, there 是 computer chips in your washing machine; we’ve come a long way since the days of the washboard.我们的业务联系人之一, 一个主要的建筑商, 告诉我们他现在正在出售装有旧电器的新房并承诺他会尽快更换这些电器. Manufacturers in our region 是 also reporting being hamstrung by supply chain issues. 不幸的是, 有迹象表明，这些限制可能会在未来几年持续存在.

There’s another input lacking in supply as well: labor. Job openings 是 at record highs, hitting nearly 11 million at the end of July. 与此同时, more people 是 quitting their jobs, and the rate at which open positions 是 being filled is continuing to slow. The upshot, of course, is better pay for those who 是 working: Wages 是 up more than 4% year over year.

It’s clear that a combination of factors — trouble accessing childc是 or elderc是, 对病毒的恐惧挥之不去, the rise in equities and home values spurring people to retire, 或许还有对生活选择的总体重新评估——正在说服许多美国人在大阳城集团娱乐网站重新开放的情况下继续观望. 特别是, 取消额外的联邦失业救济金似乎并没有明显地——至少目前还没有——促使人们重返工作岗位.

Here in Delaw是, there 是 strong signs of economic recovery. Nearly 70 percent of adults 是 fully vaccinated, and various economic metrics 是 trending in a positive direction.

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate in Delaw是 was 5.8月份的失业率为4%，这与2020年4月失业率为13%相比有了巨大的改善.4%. 但仍有一些需要弥补的地方:2020年2月，失业率为4.5%. 金融服务和制造业的就业人数达到或非常接近大流行前的数字, though there is still ground to be made up in leisure and hospitality. In terms of unfilled job openings, the most in-demand roles in the state 是 registered nurses, applications softw是 developers, and customer service representatives.

The housing market continues to perform well. The state’s year-over-year home price growth in July was around 16.2. Home price growth in Sussex County has been even stronger at around 20 percent. Exports have rebounded significantly, 太, with healthy growth in the outbound shipment of chemicals, 电脑和电子产品, 和运输设备.

On the national level, for 2021, I would expect GDP growth to come in at around 6.5%. It will then moderate to about 3.2022年为5%，2022年为2%.到2023年增长5%. 通货膨胀, 与此同时, should come in around 4% for 2021 — we’re already seeing some moderation there, as prices of used cars finally stabilize. 在那之后, 我们可以预计，2022年的通胀率将略高于2%，2023年将达到2%. Unemployment should fall steadily during this period as well.

下行风险包括持续的供应链问题或病毒再次死灰复燃. 在短期内也是如此, 如果国会未能提高债务上限，可能会严重损害大阳城集团娱乐网站增长.

在货币政策方面, 坦率地说，我相信，很快就会有时间慢慢地、有条不紊地开始了, 无趣地 ——减少每月1200亿美元的国库券和抵押贷款支持证券的购买. 在危机最严重的阶段，这些购买对于维持市场运转是必要的. But to the extent that we 是 still dealing with a labor force issue, the problem lies on the supply side, 与需求不. 无论你走进一家餐馆，还是开车经过一条商业街，你都会注意到到处都是“招聘”的标语. Asset purchases 是n’t doing much — or anything — to ameliorate that.

在我们缩减资产购买规模之后，我们可以开始考虑提高联邦基金利率. But I wouldn’t expect any hikes to interest rates until late next year or early 2023.

现在，在我们讨论Q之前&A, I’d like to sh是 just a little bit of information from our most recent CFI消费者COVID-19调查. 这份工作的乐趣之一就是与像你这样的观众分享我们所做的一些研究.

2020年4月以来, 费城联邦储备银行一直在进行一系列关注就业状况变化的全国性调查, 收入水平, 以及个人财务安全. The economic data we have access to at the Fed — and believe me, we look at a 吨 of data — 是 an extraordinary resource. 但重要的是, 太, to understand how people’s economic realities 是 playing out on the ground. Our COVID-19 surveys have been instrumental in allowing us to do that.

I’d encourage all of you to take a look at our series of surveys on our website — trans-interpret.com — but I’d like to point out just a few important data points from the latest survey, which was done this summer as Delta surged.

第一个, 今年夏天，比起春天，更多的人对自己的个人财务状况更有信心. 更多的人在正常时间工作，更多的人在现场工作，而不是远程工作.9 percent of respondents reported being currently laid off or furloughed, down from 17.去年秋天9%.

但调查发现，在对未来的预期方面，不同群体之间存在巨大差异. 女性, 年收入低于40美元的人,每年000, 36岁以下的人对未来一年的收入比男性和年长的人悲观得多, 例如. 好消息是, 在所有调查对象中, 报告入不敷出的人数一直在下降.

The headline of this iteration of the survey is “Cautious Optimism Reigns,” which I’d say captures my sentiment regarding the economy as well.

So, thanks again so much for having me. And now, let’s move on to questions.

  • 这里所表达的观点仅是演讲者本人的观点，并不一定反映联邦储备系统其他任何人的观点.